Page 175 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第4期
P. 175
!33 " ! 4 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.33No.4
2022 $ 8 % JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Aug.,2022
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.04.23
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Globalimportanceanalysisofinfluencingfactorsofdam structuralreliability
3
1,2
ZHANGJingmei ,WANGShaowei
(1.StateKeyLaboratoryofHydrology-WaterResourcesandHydraulicEngineering,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098,China;
2.SchoolofWaterConservancyandEnvironmentEngineering,ZhejiangUniversityofWaterResourcesandElectricPower,
Hangzhou310018,China;3.SchoolofEnvironmentalandSafetyEngineering,
ChangzhouUniversity,Changzhou213164,China)
Abstract:Sensitivitycoefficientsarecommonlyusedintheanalysisoftheinfluenceofvariousuncertain
factorsonthereliabilityofdamstructures;however,thevaluesofthesensitivitycoefficientsareselected
fromtherangeofthelocaldesigncheckingpoints.Inordertoovercomethedefectoflocality,theglobal
importanceanalysismethodofthefactorswhichcaninfluencethedamstructuralreliabilityisstudiedfor
theanalysis.Firstly ,onthebasisofthedamstructuralreliabilityanalysismodel,theglobalimportance
measurementindexofinfluencingfactorsaredeterminedconsideringthechangesofuncertainfactorsin
thewholefailuredomain.Then ,MonteCarlosimulationcombinedwithtruncatedimportancesampling
(TIS-MCS)isusedtoquantitativelycalculatetheglobalimportancemeasurementindex.Finally,the
structuralreliabilityanalysismodelofadamisestablishedtocalculateandcomparetheglobalimportance
measurementindexesandsensitivitycoefficientsoftheuncertainfactors.Theresultshowsthattheglobal
importancemeasurementindexcanreflecttheinfluenceofuncertainfactorsonthedamstructuralreliabil
itymorecomprehensivelythanthesensitivitycoefficient.
Keywords:damstructuralreliability;globalimportancemeasurementindex;sensitivitycoefficient;un
certainfactor ;truncatedimportancesampling(TIS);MonteCarlosimulation(MCS)
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