针对水库大坝服役期的水文、水力不确定性因素及工程结构风险等因素的影响，在时变效应理论的基础上，构建了时变随机变量量化的函数模型，并提出缓变型防洪风险分析模型；同时运用蒙特卡罗法（Monte Carlo method）来求解风险率，进而定量的分析大坝的防洪安全。以池潭水电站为例，利用监测资料序列构建坝前最高水位与坝顶高程的缓变历程的函数关系，结果分析表明：大坝继续使用期内的防洪风险率满足现行规范设防标准，可为大坝的防洪风险评估提供科学依据，亦可将该分析方法拓展至其他服役水利工程的防洪安全评估。
英文摘要:
In view of the influence of hydrological and hydraulic uncertainty factors and engineering structure risk during service period, based on the theory of time-varying effect, the time-varying stochastic variable quantization function model was constructed and the slow flood risk analysis model was proposed. At the same time, the Monte Carlo method was used to solve the risk rate, and then the dam safety was analyzed quantitatively. Taking Tan Chi hydropower station as an example, the functional relationship between the maximum water level before the construction of the dam and the slow process of the crest elevation was constructed by using the monitoring data sequence. The case results indicated that the flood risk rate of the dam meets the current fortification standard during the continued using period，which can provide scientific basis for flood risk assessment of dam. The analysis method can also be extended to flood control safety assessment of other water conservancy projects.