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覃朝晖, 潘 铮, 丁志国, 田红宇.长江经济带农业用水强度时空演变及反弹效应研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2025,36(2):171-180
长江经济带农业用水强度时空演变及反弹效应研究
Spatial-temporal evolution of agricultural water use intensity and its rebound effect in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.20
中文关键词:  农业用水强度  反弹效应  农业用水总量  农业节水技术  长江经济带
英文关键词:agricultural water use intensity  rebound effect  total agricultural water use  agricultural water-saving technology  the Yangtze River Economic Belt
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目 (21BMZ138)
作者单位
覃朝晖1, 潘 铮1, 丁志国2, 田红宇1 (1.三峡大学 经济与管理学院 湖北 宜昌 443002 2.吉林大学 商学与管理学院 吉林 长春 130012) 
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中文摘要:
      为了控制农业用水总量并提升农业用水效率,构建节水型社会,有必要科学分析农业用水强度的变化及其反弹效应。基于2004—2022年长江经济带省级面板数据,利用核密度函数对各省(市)农业用水强度的时空演变进行了分析,并依据农业用水反弹效应的标准,测算了农业用水反弹效应并进行了评估。结果表明:长江经济带农业用水强度均值总体呈下降趋势,按地区划分,农业用水强度从低到高依次为上游地区、中游地区、下游地区;在空间上,长江经济带农业用水强度从最初的不均匀多波峰分布逐步转变为三波峰分布,各省(市)间的农业用水强度差异逐渐缩小;考虑农业技术进步等因素的影响,长江经济带各省(市)出现了较高程度的农业用水反弹现象,表明农业用水总量尚未得到有效控制。为此,应加快农业节水技术创新,开发和推广高效节水灌溉技术,通过政策引导和技术支持,降低农业用水反弹效应的程度,从而实现减量增效的目标。
英文摘要:
      To control the total amount of agricultural water use and enhance its efficiency, we analyzed the variations in agricultural water use intensity and its rebound effect. Based on the provincial panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2004 and 2022, the spatial-temporal evolution of agricultural water use intensity was analyzed by kernel density function. Meanwhile, the rebound effect was calculated and evaluated according to the standards for agricultural water rebound effects. The findings indicate that the average agricultural water use intensity in the YREB showed a declining pattern, with the water intensity from low to high following the order of the upstream, midstream, and downstream. In terms of spatial distribution, the uneven multi-wave peak distribution of agricultural water use intensity in the YREB gradually changed to three-wave peak distribution, and the differences between provinces and cities narrowed. Affected by agricultural technological advancements and other factors, all provinces and cities in the YREB experienced a relatively high degree of agricultural water rebound effect, indicating a failed attempt in controlling the total agricultural water use. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the innovation, development and promotion of agricultural water-saving technologies, and reduce water rebound effect from both policy-making and technology innovation perspectives, so as to achieve the goal of consumption reduction and efficiency enhancement of agricultural water.
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