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李 泽, 陆志明, 张小艳, 彭 普, 郭 兴.地震作用下土石坝单元失效概率研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2025,36(2):134-143
地震作用下土石坝单元失效概率研究
Unit failure probability of earth-rock dam under earthquake
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.16
中文关键词:  土石坝  稳定性分析  单元失效概率  地震作用  拟静力法  蒙特卡洛模拟法
英文关键词:earth-rock dam  stability analysis  unit failure probability  earthquake action  pseudo-static method  Monte Carlo simulation
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(12262016、12162018、12462037)
作者单位
李 泽1, 陆志明1, 张小艳2, 彭 普3, 郭 兴4 (1.昆明理工大学 建筑工程学院 云南 昆明 650500 2.昆明理工大学 电力工程学院 云南 昆明 6505003.云南农业大学 水利学院 云南 昆明 650201 4.中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司 北京 100024) 
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中文摘要:
      土石坝的失稳与众多随机参数相关,传统的稳定性分析方法通常忽略了库水位、土体抗剪强度和地震的随机性对土石坝的影响。为了全面分析土石坝的失效概率和破坏模式,以某抽水蓄能电站土石坝为对象,结合拟静力法、塑性极限分析法、有限元离散思想、随机规划理论和蒙特卡洛模拟法,提出了一种考虑土体抗剪强度参数变异性的土石坝可靠度分析新算法。基于单元失效概率理论,计算了坝体不同部位的失效概率,从而全面评估土石坝的可靠度。结果表明:对坝坡下游进行抗滑桩支护后,在正常蓄水位和地震工况下的土石坝失效概率分别降低了1.90%和17.56%,表明抗滑桩在地震作用下具有明显的加固效果;相较于传统方法(有限单元法和毕肖普法),新算法计算得到的安全系数平均相对误差仅为3.32%,且计算效率提高了98.31%,表明该算法能够精确、高效地预测土石坝的失效概率和失效区域,为工程设计和安全评估提供了可靠的工具。
英文摘要:
      The instability of earth-rock dams is related to numerous stochastic parameters; however, conventional stability analysis often overlook the impacts of multiple parameters on earth-rock dams, such as reservoir water level, soil shear strength, and earthquakes. To comprehensively analyze the failure probability and damage modes of earth-rock dams, a case study of the dam in a pumped storage hydropower station was conducted. Based on pseudo-static method, plastic limit analysis, finite element discretization concepts, stochastic programming theory, and Monte Carlo simulation, we proposed a novel algorithm for the reliability analysis of earth-rock dams, considering the variability of soil shear strength parameters. Then, the failure probabilities of different sections of the dam were calculated based on the unit failure probability theory to assess the reliability of the whole dam. The results show that after supporting the downstream slope of the dam, the failure probability under normal water level and seismic condition were reduced by 1.90% and 17.56%, respectively, indicating that the supporting piles sustained the reinforcement effect under seismic conditions. Compared with the conventional methods (finite element method and Bishop’s method), the calculation efficiency of the proposed algorithm was increased by 98.31%, with a mere average relative error of 3.32% for the safety factor. This suggests that the algorithm can accurately and efficiently predict the failure probability and failure zones of earth-rock dams, providing a reliable tool for the engineering design and safety assessment.
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