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曾金凤, 胡冬贵, 刘祖文, 谢水石, 徐晓娟, 张 军, 刘星根.1956—2022年东江源区降雨变化特征及未来变化趋势分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2025,36(2):76-83
1956—2022年东江源区降雨变化特征及未来变化趋势分析
Variation characteristics and future trend of rainfall in the Dongjiang River Source Area during 1956-2022
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.09
中文关键词:  降雨特征  趋势性变化  Morlet小波周期性分析  Hurst系数  东江源区
英文关键词:rainfall characteristics  trend change  Morlet wavelet periodic analysis  Hurst coefficient  Dongjiang River Source Area
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42207087);江西省水利厅应用基础研究项目(202425YBKT14)
作者单位
曾金凤1, 胡冬贵1, 刘祖文2, 谢水石1, 徐晓娟1, 张 军3, 刘星根3 (1.赣江上游水文水资源监测中心 江西 赣州 341000 2.南昌工程学院 水利工程学院江西 南昌 330002 3.江西理工大学 土木与测绘工程学院 江西 赣州 341000) 
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中文摘要:
      东江作为粤港澳大湾区供水安全的关键部分,研究其源头区域降雨的变化及未来趋势对有效开发和利用东江水资源至关重要。基于1956—2022年间24个气象站的数据,采用Mann-Kendall突变检测和小波分析探讨了降雨变化特性,并结合Hurst系数预测了未来降雨趋势。结果表明:降雨的枯汛比例约为3∶7,集中度介于0.12~0.60之间,且5月为降雨高峰期;1956—2022年,降雨的年内分布趋于分散;寻乌水的降雨高峰期提前了4 d,而定南水则提前了11 d;年际变化方面,寻乌水和定南水的年降雨量分别平均每年增加0.74和0.86 mm,主周期为16 a,预计未来数年仍处于降雨量较低的周期;降雨Hurst系数h大于0.5,且相关函数C(t)接近0,表明降雨具有持续性且变化较小;东江源头降雨集中期提前,年内分布趋于平缓,同时最近的年降雨量处于较低水平周期。建议强化对汛前强降雨引发山洪灾害的预防措施,并合理调配汛期后中小水库的水资源,以提高秋冬季农业灌溉及居民用水的安全性,从而更好地适应气候变化下东江源头地区降雨模式的变化。
英文摘要:
      Dongjiang River plays a critical role in the water supply safety system of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. It is of great significance to explore the rainfall changes and future trends for the efficient development and utilization of water resources in the Dongjiang River Source Area. Based on the rainfall data of 24 representative meteorological stations from 1956 to 2022, the characteristics of rainfall changes on the intra-annual and inter-annual scales were studied by means of Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis. Subsequently, the future rainfall trend changes were predicted by Hurst coefficient and correlation function method. The results show that the ratio of rainfall in dry season to flood season was about 3∶7, the concentration degree was 0.12-0.60, and rainfall mainly concentrated in May. The intra-annual distribution of rainfall showed a trend of discretization in the study period. The rainfall concentration period of Xunwu River was advanced by 4 days, and Dingnan River by 11 days. In terms of inter-annual changes, the rates of annual rainfall of Xunwu River and Dingnan River only increased by 0.74 mm and 0.86 mm per year, respectively, with a principle cycle of 16 a. It is predicted that the study area will still be in the period of low rainfall in the next few years. The Hurst coefficient of rainfall is greater than 0.5, and the correlation function value is close to 0, indicating persistent rainfalls with little variations. It is found that the rainfall concentration period is advanced, the annual distribution trend is flat, and the recent annual rainfall is in a low period. It is suggested to strengthen the prevention of mountain flood disasters induced by strong rainfall events before flood season, and make full use of the water resources in small and medium-sized reservoirs after flood season. Hence, the safety of agricultural and domestic water use in autumn and winter can be improved, which is an efficient approach to adapting to the changing environment of rainfall in the Dongjiang River Source Area under climate change.
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