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谢宇莹, 刘智勇.广东省水资源系统脆弱性时空格局评估水资源与水工程学报[J].,2025,36(1):77-87
广东省水资源系统脆弱性时空格局评估
Spatiotemporal evolution of vulnerability of water resources system in Guangdong Province
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.01.09
中文关键词:  水资源脆弱性  脆弱性评价框架  熵权法  空间自相关  广东省
英文关键词:water resources vulnerability  vulnerability scoping diagram(VSD)  spatial autocorrelation  entropy weight method  Guangdong Province
基金项目:广东省杰出青年基金项目(2023B1515020116);国家自然科学基金项目(52179031);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2023B1515040028);中国电力建设集团重点科技研发项目(DJ-ZDXM-2023-39);珠江人才计划团队项目(2019ZT08G090)
作者单位
谢宇莹1, 刘智勇2,3 (1.广东省水文局佛山水文分局, 广东 佛山 528000 2.中山大学 土木工程学院 水资源与环境研究中心 广东 广州 510275 3.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 广东 珠海 519082) 
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中文摘要:
      水资源在社会经济发展中起着至关重要的作用,评估区域水资源脆弱性,对协调区域经济社会发展与水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。采用VSD概念框架,从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个维度,建立水资源脆弱性评价体系,结合趋势分析与空间自相关分析方法,对广东省2010—2022年水资源系统脆弱性进行综合评价和时空变异分析。结果表明:广东省水资源系统脆弱性在空间上呈现“南高北低和中部高、东西两翼低”的格局,其中,珠三角核心区最高,粤东、粤西次之,粤北最低;研究时段内,除深圳市水资源脆弱性呈显著上升趋势外,其他地级市脆弱性均呈下降趋势;广东省水资源系统脆弱性呈现明显的空间正相关关系,且空间聚集性不断增强,形成以珠三角为核心的高-高聚集模式和以粤北与粤西为核心的低-低聚集模式。研究结果进一步明晰了广东省水资源脆弱性的时空规律,以期为区域水资源管理决策提供参考。
英文摘要:
      Water resources play an essential role in socioeconomic development, and the evaluation of water resources vulnerability is conducive to regional development and sustainable utilization of water resources. Based on the analytical framework of vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD), we developed a composite water resources vulnerability evaluation system from exposure, sensitivity and adaptability dimensions. Subsequently, a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of water resources vulnerability in Guangdong Province over the period of 2010-2022 was carried out by means of trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation method. The results show that water resources vulnerability showed a distribution pattern of “high in the south and central; low in the north, east and west”. The core region of the Pearl River Delta presented the highest level of water resources vulnerability, followed by the east and west Guangdong; whereas the north Guangdong exbibited the lowest. In the study period, the water resources vulnerability of most cities in Guangdong Province has decreased; while that of Shenzhen has increased. The water resources vulnerability of Guangdong Province exhibited a positive spatial autocorrelation and there was a strengthening trend in spatial agglomeration. High-high clustering areas were mainly distributed in the Pearl River Delta region, while low-low clustering areas in the north and west Guangdong. This study clarified the distribution pattern of water resources vulnerability in Guangdong Province, so as to provide a guide for decision-making of sustainable water resources management.
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