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宋立辉, 张 鑫, 杜传玉, 宗函西.基于随机森林的西北地区综合干旱监测模型研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2024,35(5):62-72
基于随机森林的西北地区综合干旱监测模型研究
Model for comprehensive drought monitoring in northwest China based on random forest
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.05.08
中文关键词:  干旱  监测模型  随机森林  多源数据  西北地区
英文关键词:drought  monitoring model  random forest (RF)  multi-source data  northwest China
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52379026)
作者单位
宋立辉, 张 鑫, 杜传玉, 宗函西 (西北农林科技大学 水利与建筑工程学院 陕西 杨凌 712100) 
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中文摘要:
      西北地区干旱灾害频繁,精准监测西北地区干旱情况对农业生产和经济发展具有重要意义。以2001年6月—2020年5月的气象站点数据和综合反映降水、植被、土壤等环境因素的多源遥感数据集为数据源,利用随机森林算法构建综合干旱监测模型,并研究模型在西北地区的适用性。结果表明:该模型输出的综合干旱指数(CDI)与气象综合干旱指数(MCI)各月份干旱等级一致率在75%以上;CDI与气象站点的标准化降水指数(SPI-3)和标准化土壤湿度指数(SSI-1)的相关系数分别为0.318~0.726和0.173~0.433,均达到极显著水平;CDI能准确反映西北地区典型干旱实例旱情的发展情况。研究表明,随机森林方法可用于西北地区综合干旱监测,具有一定的应用价值。
英文摘要:
      Northwest China is afflicted by frequent drought disasters, so accurate monitoring of drought conditions in the region is of great significance to agricultural production and economic development. This article uses meteorological station data from June 2001 to May 2020 and multi-source remote sensing data sets of precipitation, vegetation, soil and other environmental factors as data sources to establish a comprehensive drought monitoring model based on random forest algorithm. Then, the applicability of the model in the northwest China is investigated. The results show that the consistency rate of the drought levels in each month of the study period between the comprehensive drought index (CDI) output by the model and the meteorological comprehensive drought index (MCI) is above 75%. Moreover, the correlation coefficients between CDI and the standardized precipitation index (SPI-3), CDI and the standardized soil moisture index (SSI-1) of the meteorological stations are 0.318~0.726 and 0.173~0.433 respectively, both reaching extremely significant levels. In addition, CDI can accurately reflect the development of drought conditions in typical drought events in the northwest region. This study shows that the random forest method is applicable to the comprehensive drought monitoring in northwest China.
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