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王 晟, 赵炫越, 张乃明, 高 伟.半分布式水文模型在长江流域模拟效果及影响因素分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2024,35(4):1-11
半分布式水文模型在长江流域模拟效果及影响因素分析
Simulation performance and influencing factors of HBV model in the Yangtze River Basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.04.01
中文关键词:  HBV模型  模拟精度  随机森林  影响因素  长江流域
英文关键词:hydrologiska byrans vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model  simulation accuracy  random forest  influencing factor  the Yangtze River Basin
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201004);国家自然科学基金项目(41701631)
作者单位
王 晟1,2, 赵炫越3, 张乃明3, 高 伟4 (1.云南农业大学 植物保护学院 云南 昆明 650201 2.北京大学 环境科学与工程学院 北京 100871 3.云南农业大学资源与环境学院 云南 昆明 650201 4.广东工业大学 环境生态工程研究院 广东 广州 510006) 
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中文摘要:
      HBV是一种在流域水文模拟中广泛应用的半分布式水文模型,但模拟效果在不同流域内差异较大,识别影响模拟效果的关键因素有助于提升HBV模型在不同流域中的应用精度。以长江流域为研究区,采用HBV模型对38个子流域逐日流量进行模拟,分析不同子流域逐日流量模拟的决定系数(R2)、纳什系数(NSE)和相对误差(RE)3项模拟精度指标,并通过随机森林模型探究土地利用、地形、气象水文等12个因素对模拟精度的影响程度。结果表明:HBV模型在长江流域具有较高的适用性,38个子流域流量模拟精度评价指标R2NSERE平均值分别为0.62、0.56和-0.19;长江流域HBV模型的模拟精度在不同子流域存在显著差异,各模拟精度评价指标大小在空间上呈现随机分布特点,表明HBV模型模拟精度受到非系统性因素的影响;雨量站点密度是影响模型模拟精度最显著的因素,其次是年平均气温和年平均降水量,地形特征相较于气象和水文因素对模拟精度的影响较小。HBV模型在长江流域多种空间尺度和多种气象地形的子流域中均能实现较高的模拟精度,随着高精度降水产品的不断发展,HBV模型在我国流域水文模拟和水资源管理中具有广阔的应用前景。
英文摘要:
      The semi-distributed, hydrological HBV model is commonly used in hydrological watershed simulation; however, its simulation performance varies significantly across different watersheds. Identifying key factors influencing the simulation performance can help improve the application accuracy of HBV model in different watersheds. This study employed the HBV model to simulate the daily flow of 38 sub-basins in the Yangtze River Basin. The determination coefficient (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and relative error (RE) were analyzed, and the impact of 12 factors, including land use, topography, and meteorological hydrology, on the simulation accuracy was explored using a random forest model. The results showed that the HBV model was highly applicable to the Yangtze River Basin, with average R2, NSE, and RE values of 0.62, 0.56 and -0.19 for the 38 sub-basins, respectively; however, the simulation accuracy of the HBV model varied significantly among the different sub-basins. Furthermore, the size of each evaluation index showed random spatial distribution, indicating that the simulation accuracy of the HBV model was affected by non-systematic factors. Among the influencing factors, the density of rainfall stations was the most significant factor affecting model simulation accuracy, followed by average annual temperature and precipitation; whereas the impact of topographical features was relatively low compared to meteorological and hydrological factors. The HBV model demonstrated a notable ability to achieve high simulation accuracy in sub-basins with various spatial scales and meteorological terrains in the Yangtze River Basin. With the continuous development of high-precision precipitation products, the HBV model has broad application prospects in hydrological simulation and water resources management in China.
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