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吴高鹏,赵 强,王 璇,陈亚利,张玉虎.海河流域1961—2020年极端气候变化及其与大气环流关系水资源与水工程学报[J].,2024,35(3):100-110
海河流域1961—2020年极端气候变化及其与大气环流关系
Extreme climate change and its relationship with atmospheric circulation in the Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2020
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.03.12
中文关键词:  极端气候  大气环流  小波分析  时空变化  海河流域
英文关键词:extreme climate  atmospheric circulation  wavelet analysis  spatiotemporal variation  the Haihe River Basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51909105)
作者单位
吴高鹏,赵 强,王 璇,陈亚利,张玉虎 (济南大学 水利与环境学院 山东 济南 250022) 
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中文摘要:
      中国极端气候变化具有显著的区域性差异,有必要明晰区域尺度极端气候的时空变化特征及成因。基于海河流域41个气象站点1961—2020年的逐日气温、降水资料,计算并选取7个极端气温指数和4个极端降水指数,借助线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析法等方法探究了海河流域的极端气候变化及其与大气环流的关系。结果表明:1961—2020年海河流域极端暖指数呈现显著上升趋势,TX90p、TN90p和SU25分别在流域东北部、南部和北部地区上升更明显;极端冷指数呈现显著下降趋势,TX10p在流域东部和西部地区下降趋势较大,TN10p和FD0在流域东南部和西北部地区下降趋势较大;海河流域极端降水指数总体呈非显著下降趋势,Rx1day、R95p、PRCPTOT和R10分别在流域西南部、中部、东南部和东部地区下降更多;大气环流会对海河流域的极端气候指数产生影响,其中影响较大的因子是北极涛动;北极涛动与海河流域的极端暖指数普遍呈现正向关系,与极端冷指数和极端降水指数则呈现负向关系,且北极涛动与海河流域的极端气候指数存在多个共振周期。
英文摘要:
      There are significant regional differences in extreme climate change in China, and it is necessary to clarify the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of extreme climate change at the regional scale. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 41 meteorological stations in the Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2020, seven extreme temperature indices and four extreme precipitation indices were calculated and selected. Linear trend method, Mann-Kendall abrupt change test, and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to explore the extreme climate changes in the Haihe River Basin and their relationship with the atmospheric circulation. The results show that the extreme warm indicies in the Haihe River Basin showed a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2020, with TX90p, TN90p and SU25 increasing more greatly in the northeast, south and north regions respectively; whereas the extreme cold indcies experienced a significant downward trend, with TX10p decreasing more greatly in the east and west regions, TN10p and FD0 in the southeast and northwest regions. In addition, the extreme precipitation indicies presented an overall insignificant downward trend, with Rx1day, R95p, PRCPTOT and R10 decreasing more greatly in the southwest, central, southeast and east regions. Furthermore, the atmospheric circulation had an impact on the extreme climate indicies of the Haihe River Basin, with the Arctic Oscillation being the most influential factor. The Arctic Oscillation generally showed a positive relationship with the extreme warm indicies in the Haihe River Basin, but a negative relationship with the extreme cold indicies and extreme precipitation indicies. Additionally, there were multiple resonance periods between the Arctic Oscillation and the extreme climate indicies in the Haihe River Basin.
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