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吕振豫, 李梦杰, 梁犁丽, 刘志武, 刘 琨.缺资料地区多源降水产品适用性评价——以巴西巴拉那河为例水资源与水工程学报[J].,2023,34(6):61-68
缺资料地区多源降水产品适用性评价——以巴西巴拉那河为例
Applicability evaluation of multi-source precipitation products in data-deficient areas:Taking Paran River in Brazil as an example
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2023.06.08
中文关键词:  多源降水产品  CFSv2降水产品  ERA5降水产品  气候遥相关模型  适用性评价  缺资料地区  巴拉那河上游流域
英文关键词:multi-source precipitation product  CFSv2  ERA5  climatic teleconnection model  applicability evaluation  data-deficient area  upper Paran River Basin
基金项目:中国长江三峡集团有限公司自主科研项目(WWKY-2021-0081、202103429); 国家自然科学基金项目(U2040212)
作者单位
吕振豫, 李梦杰, 梁犁丽, 刘志武, 刘 琨 (中国长江三峡集团有限公司科学技术研究院, 北京 100038) 
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中文摘要:
      作为地面站降水监测的补充,以卫星遥感为代表的多源降水产品是准确识别区域特别是缺资料地区降水分布的关键。从时间和空间两个维度,以决定系数(R2)、纳什效率系数(NSE)和相对误差(RE)为评价指标,以地面站实测降水信息为参照,比较评估了CFSv2、ERA5和基于改进model-X knockoffs的随机森林方法遥相关建模形成的降水产品(TPP)在巴西巴拉那河上游流域降水信息识别中的适用性。结果表明:TPP和ERA5预测研究区降水量与实测值拟合精度高于CFSv2产品。时间上,交叉时段3种典型降水产品计算研究区的面雨量与实测值拟合R2NSE均表现为ERA5>TPP>CFSv2,其中,CFSv2产品存在计算的面雨量较实测值偏大问题,拟合RE为28.2%;ERA5则相反,与实测值拟合RE为-10.3%;TPP产品计算的面雨量与实测值拟合RE最小,仅为0.33%。空间上,3种产品与遴选气象站点实测降水量拟合R2和NSE表现为ERA5>TPP>CFSv2,|RE|则表现为TPP
英文摘要:
      Multi-source precipitation products represented by satellite remote sensing is a necessary supplement to the measured data of meteorological stations, they play an important role in the accurate identification of the precipitation distribution in data-deficient areas. In this research, precipitation products of CFSv2, ERA5 and TPP (constructed by an improved climatic teleconnection model based on model-X knockoffs and random forest) were compared with the measured precipitation of meteorological stations from the spatial and temporal dimensions to evaluate their applicability in the upper Paran River Basin, Brazil. The determination coefficient (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE) and relative error (RE) were adopted as evaluation indices. The results showed that the fitting accuracy between the predicted value and measured value of the TPP and ERA5 products are higher than that of CFSv2. In the cross periods, the fitted R2 and NSE of the area rainfall expressed as ERA5>TPP>CFSv2, among which, the area rainfall calculated by CFSv2 was larger than that of the measured one, and the fitted RE reached 28.2%; on the contrary, the calculated value of ERA5 was smaller than the measured one, with a fitted RE of -10.3%. The RE between the calculated area rainfall of TPP products and the measured value was the smallest, which was 0.33%. Spatially, the fitted R2 and NSE of the three products with the measured precipitation at the selected typical meteorological stations were ERA5>TPP>CFSv2, while the |RE| expressed as TPP
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