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姜忠峰, 许桂平, 张 凯.基于SPEI的贵州省气象干旱时空演变特征及双变量区域频率分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2023,34(5):20-31
基于SPEI的贵州省气象干旱时空演变特征及双变量区域频率分析
Spatiotemporal variation and bivariate regional frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Guizhou Province based on SPEI
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2023.05.03
中文关键词:  气象干旱  标准化降水蒸散指数  双变量区域频率  联合重现期  游程理论  贵州省
英文关键词:meteorological drought  standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)  bivariate regional frequency  joint return period  run theory  Guizhou Province
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51779118);河南省科技攻关项目(162102310073);河南省教育厅重点项目(19B570001);河南省高校大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202111765034、202211765036)
作者单位
姜忠峰1, 许桂平2, 张 凯1 (1.河南城建学院 河南 平顶山 467036 2.黄河水文勘察测绘局 河南 郑州 450046) 
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中文摘要:
      为深入探究贵州省干旱事件发展规律及区域重现期特征,采用贵州省1960—2017年逐月气象资料计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),采用三阈值法游程理论、小波理论、Copula函数等方法对干旱时空演变特征、周期特征以及区域重现期特征进行分析。结果表明:1960—2017年贵州省干旱整体上呈严重化趋势,各分区存在差异,其中黔西南地区的干旱化趋势最为明显,SPEI线性倾向率为-0.003/10a;干旱强度由高到底的分区排序依次为黔东、黔北、黔西南、黔中、黔西北、黔南,且黔中地区的干旱发生频率最高;贵州省四季干旱的主周期分别为18、15、30和8 a,空间上南北分布差异显著,周期较长的区域范围呈现先增加后减少的趋势;贵州省黔北地区的干旱重现期最小,表明此区域发生极端干旱事件的概率较大,遭受干旱灾害的可能性较大。研究结果可为贵州省水资源管理及干旱风险防治提供科学依据。
英文摘要:
      In order to explore the development law and regional occurrence probability characteristics of drought events in Guizhou Province, the monthly meteorological data of 1960-2017 measured at 17 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province were used to calculate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Then, the run theory method with three thresholds, wavelet analysis and Copula functions were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of drought events, drought cycle and regional return periods. The results show that droughts in Guizhou Province aggravated during 1960-2017, but the intensities differentiated in different regions, among which the dryness trend with a linear tendency rate of -0.003/10 a in southwest Guizhou was the most obvious. The drought intensity ranked from the highest to the lowest is as follows: east Guizhou, north Guizhou, southwest Guizhou, central Guizhou, northwest Guizhou and south Guizhou, and droughts occurred most frequently in central Guizhou. The main cycles of seasonal droughts were 18, 15, 30 and 8 a in Guizhou Province with a significant difference in the distribution of the south and north, and the range of the areas with long drought cycles increased first and then decreased. The drought return period in north Guizhou is the smallest, indicating that the region has a high occurrence probability of extreme drought events, and is most likely to be afflicted by drought disasters. These results can provide theoretical reference for water resources management and drought prevention in Guizhou Province.
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