To evaluate the water resources vulnerability status of all prefectures in Xinjiang, a water resources vulnerability evaluation index system is constructed based on three subsystems of nature, human activities and carrying capacity, and the water resources vulnerability of 15 prefectures in Xinjiang is evaluated from the temporal and spatial dimensions by fuzzy set pair analysis model. Meanwhile, the target layer development trend is identified by the five-element gravitational subtraction set pair potential. The results show that in terms of spatial distribution, eastern Xinjiang has the strongest water resources vulnerability , followed by southern Xinjiang, and the northern Xinjiang is the weakest. In terms of the temporal trend, 19.03% of the regions show an upward trend of vulnerability level, 18.88% of the regions are relatively stable, 62.09% of the regions show a downward trend, but the overall vulnerability situation has improved. However, it is necessary to pay close attention to Urumqi City, Hami City and Changji Prefecture, where the development trend of water resources vulnerability is always on the partially opposite side, and Kashgar region where the opposite trend has appeared. The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the efficient utilization and optimal management of water resources in Xinjiang.