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王跃峰, 胡 月, 尹思危, 杨 琴, 刘春红.嘉陵江流域极端连续性降水时空变化及其驱动因素研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2023,34(4):35-44
嘉陵江流域极端连续性降水时空变化及其驱动因素研究
Spatio-temporal changes in continuous extreme precipitation and its climatic drivers in the Jialing River Basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2023.04.05
中文关键词:  极端连续性降水  时空变化  气候驱动因素  随机森林方法  嘉陵江流域
英文关键词:continuous extreme precipitation  spatio-temporal change  climatic driver  random forest method  the Jialing River Basin
基金项目:climate change; human activities; nutrient in rivers; nutrient flux; water environment model
作者单位
王跃峰1,2, 胡 月3, 尹思危1, 杨 琴4, 刘春红1,2 (1.重庆师范大学 地理与旅游学院 重庆 401331 2.三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重庆市重点实验室重庆 401331 3.重庆市綦江区古南中学 重庆 401420 4.重庆市气象局气候中心 重庆 401147) 
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中文摘要:
      针对嘉陵江流域极端连续性降水气候驱动因素复杂且主控因素尚不明确的问题,利用1960—2019年逐日降水资料,采用Sen’s斜率、Mann-Kendall检验和随机森林等方法,分析流域连续干旱日数(CDD)和连续湿润日数(CWD)的时空变化特征,探究其气候驱动因素。结果表明:流域CDD和CWD多年趋势分别为-3.8~4.8 d/10a和-0.42~0 d/10a,分别有2个(3.3%)和10个(15.9%)气象站点的趋势达0.05显著性。局地气候驱动因子方面,CWD与年降水量存在较强正相关,共34个(54%)站相关系数达到0.05显著性;气候环流驱动因子方面,单、多因子分析均表明Nino3.4和SOI(southern oscillation index)是流域极端连续性降水的主控气候因子,CDD和CWD各有28个(44.4%)和15个(23.8%)气象站点的相关系数达0.05显著性,而SASMI(south Asian summer monsoon index)和PDO(Pacific decadal oscillation)分别为流域CDD和CWD的次要气候驱动因子。
英文摘要:
      The issues about climatic drivers of extreme precipitation in the Jialing River Basin are complex and unclear. In order to investigate the climatic drivers, we collected daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2019 to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of the consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), using statistical methods of Sen’slope, Mann-Kendall, and random forest. The results showed that the trends of CDD and CWD were -3.8-4.8 d/10a and -0.42-0 d/10a, with 2 (3.3%) and 10 (15.9%) stations reaching the significant trend of p=0.05, respectively. In terms of local climatic drivers, there was a strong positive correlation between CWD and annual precipitation, with the correlation coefficients of 34 (54%) stations reaching the significant trend of p=0.05. As for climate circulation, both single and multi-factor analysis showed that Nino 3.4 and SOI (southern oscillation index) were the main driving factors of the continuous extreme precipitation in the Jialing River Basin, and there were 28 (44.4%) and 15 (23.8%) stations with significant correlation coefficients for CDD and CWD, respectively; whereas SASMI (south Asian summer monsoon index) and PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) were the secondary driving factors of CDD and CWD respectively.
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