Strengthening the rigid constraint of water resources can effectively improve the performance of water resources in the regional socio-economic development. Taking Xinyu City as an example, a system dynamics simulation model for the rigid constraint requirements of water resources is established considering local industrial characteristics, then it is used to predict the changing process of local water resources carrying capacity from 2020 to 2035 under four schemes (i.e. the current situation, the economic development, the resource conservation, the rigid constraint). The results show that, under the scheme of rigid constraint of water resources, the efficient water utilization of industries are emphasized, especially industries with high water pollution and consumption such as steel and photovoltaic, and the supply-demand ratio of water resources will be 1.03 in 2035, while the pollution ratio of both COD and ammonia nitrogen will be greater than 1. By 2035, the carrying capacity of total population and GDP in Xinyu City can reach 1.302×106 and 557.86×109 yuan, respectively. In this paper, with the help of the system dynamics model, the rigid constraint scheme which considers the water efficiency and socio-economic development can realize the balance between regional water supply and demand with maximized carrying capacity of water resources. This study aims to provide an effective support for the implementation of the rigid constraint of water resources in Xinyu City.