• (1)2008-2021年连续14年获得中国科技核心期刊
  • (2)2021年被中国科学院文献情报中心中国科学引文数据库CSCD(核心库)收录(2021-2022)
  • (3)热烈庆祝《水资源与水工程学报》入编北京大学图书馆《中文核心期刊要目总览》2020年版
龙云舒, 叶长青, 李运刚, 熊合勇, 赵承远.基于时变矩模型的湄公河上游非一致性洪水频率分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2022,33(4):91-96
基于时变矩模型的湄公河上游非一致性洪水频率分析
Non-stationary flood frequency analysis of the upper reaches of Mekong River based on time-varying moment model
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.04.13
中文关键词:  水文频率  非一致性  时变矩模型  概率分布函数  湄公河上游
英文关键词:hydrological frequency analysis  non-stationary  time-varying moment model  probability distribution function  the upper reaches of Mekong River
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目( 42067033、41661099)
作者单位
龙云舒1, 叶长青2, 李运刚1, 熊合勇3, 赵承远3 (1.云南大学 云南省国际河流与跨境生态安全重点实验室 云南 昆明 650504 2.海南大学 生态与环境学院 海南 海口 570228 3.华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司 云南 昆明 650214) 
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中文摘要:
      以湄公河上游为研究案例,基于清盛水文站1960-2019年逐日流量观测数据,采用时变矩模型进行非一致性洪水频率分析,探讨梯级水库建设对洪水频率的影响。结果表明:清盛水文站年最大日流量序列呈显著减小的非一致性特征;清盛水文站广义逻辑斯谛分布搭配均值具有线性趋势的模型拟合最优;与传统频率分析方法相比,时变矩方法计算得到的100年一遇设计流量随时间呈减小趋势,重现期随时间呈上升趋势。湄公河上游梯级水库尤其是糯扎渡水库运行后明显减小了清盛水文站100年一遇的洪峰流量,对下游防洪具有积极作用。
英文摘要:
      This study presented a framework to select a suitable time-varying moment (TVM) model for non-stationary flood frequency analysis based on the daily flow observation data at Chiang Saen Station, Mekong River from 1960 to 2019, the impacts of cascade reservoir construction on the flood frequency were further explored. The results showed that the annual maximum daily flow series of Chiang Saen Station exhibited a significant decreasing trend (p<0.01); the combination of generalized logistic distribution (GLO) and the AL linear trend model could obtain the optimal fitting; compared with the conventional frequency analysis, the design flow of 100 a obtained by the TVM model decreased with time, but the return period showed an upward trend. The upstream cascade reservoirs had an obvious regulation effect on the peak flow of 100 a flood at Chiang Saen Station especially after the operation of Nuozhadu Reservoir, which had a positive effect on the downstream flood control.
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