• ▶ 2008-2024年被中国情报信息研究所评价中心评为“中国科技核心期刊”
  • ▶ 2019-2024年连续三届被中国科学院文献情报中心中国科学引文数据库CSCD(核心库)收录
  • ▶ 2021、2023年入编北京大学图书馆《中文核心期刊要目总览》
  • ▶ 2020-2024连续四年入选《科技期刊世界影响力指数(WJCI)报告》
张桂玉, 丁继勇, 乔 然.水资源配置PPP项目运营期风险管理行为博弈分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2022,33(3):58-65
水资源配置PPP项目运营期风险管理行为博弈分析
Game analysis of risk management behavior of water diversion PPP projects during operation period
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.03.08
中文关键词:  水资源配置工程  PPP项目  运营期  风险管理行为
英文关键词:water diversion project  PPP project  operation period  risk management behavior
基金项目:广东省水利科技创新重点项目(2020-03); 江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX22_0701)
作者单位
张桂玉, 丁继勇, 乔 然 (河海大学 商学院 江苏 南京 211100) 
摘要点击次数: 884
全文下载次数: 340
中文摘要:
      在水资源配置PPP项目运营过程中,核心利益相关方积极的风险管理行为能够降低项目的风险发生概率。从风险管理角度,通过分析水资源配置PPP项目利益相关者的关系,构建了水资源配置PPP项目运营期风险管理过程中政府主体和社会资本方(项目公司)的行为决策演化博弈模型,运用MATLAB分析动态演化过程。结果表明:影响演化稳定行为选择策略的因素包括政府主体和社会资本方双方积极管理的成本、水污染等风险事件造成的损失与损失分配系数、可行性缺口补助和奖励。为促进水资源配置工程运营过程风险的有效管理,建议加强政府主体和社会资本方双方的风险管理能力建设,落实责任分担机制、完善监督机制、优化奖惩机制等。
英文摘要:
      The active risk management behaviors of core stakeholders in the operation process of water diversion PPP(public-private partnership) projects can reduce the probability of project risk occurrence. From the perspective of risk management, through the analysis of stakeholder relationship of water diversion PPP projects, the behavioral decision-making evolutionary game model of government subject and social capital (project company) in the risk management process of water diversion PPP projects during the operation period is constructed, and the dynamic evolution process is analyzed by MATLAB. The results show that the factors influencing the choice strategy of evolutionary stable behaviors include the cost actively managed by both the government and social capital, the loss caused by risk events such as water pollution and loss distribution coefficient, feasibility gap subsidy and reward. In order to promote effective risk management in the operation process of water diversion projects, it is suggested to strengthen the risk management capacity building of both the government and the social capital, implement the responsibility sharing mechanism, improve the supervision mechanism and optimize the reward and punishment mechanism.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭