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朱悦璐, 张 阳.多变量综合干旱指数在渭河流域的应用水资源与水工程学报[J].,2022,33(1):31-38
多变量综合干旱指数在渭河流域的应用
Application of multivariate comprehensive drought index in the Weihe River Basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.01.05
中文关键词:  综合干旱指数  水文干旱指数  气象干旱指数  风险评估  渭河流域
英文关键词:meteorological and hydrological drought index (MHDI)  hydrological drought index  meteorological drought index  risk assessmen  the Weihe River Basin
基金项目:江西省科技厅自然科学基金项目(20202BABL204066);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ180954);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502701)
作者单位
朱悦璐, 张 阳 (南昌工程学院 水利与生态工程学院 江西 南昌 330099) 
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中文摘要:
      为解决传统单变量干旱指数在实际中不通用、而多变量干旱指数在赋权上存在较大的主观性和偶然性的问题,本文以4种常用的典型单变量干旱指数,通过熵权法、模糊评价法、经验法三重赋权,构建可描述气象干旱与水文干旱的综合干旱指数MHDI。结果表明:综合干旱指数MHDI在渭河流域可有效识别典型干旱事件和极端干旱事件,1960-2010年渭河流域年代际尺度流域干旱呈现波动上升趋势,20世纪90年代达到最大;年际尺度流域呈现逐年变干趋势,其中泾河流域、渭河中游、渭河下游对流域变干起主要贡献,年内尺度流域呈现春、秋两季显著干旱的特征,其中4、11月最旱;在2010-2020年,各子流域MHDI指数的Hurst系数计算结果均小于0.5,流域旱情将有所缓解。本文的研究方案可为流域工农业生产提供参考。
英文摘要:
      The conventional univariate drought index is not generally applicable to all cases; however, the multivariate drought index has the disadvantages of strong subjectivity and contingency when weighting. In view of this, four typical univariate drought indices were selected to construct the comprehensive drought index MHDI, which can characterize both the meteorological drought and hydrological drought, using entropy weight, fuzzy evaluation and empirical weighting. The results show that MHDI can effectively identify typical drought events and extreme drought events in the Weihe River Basin. The drought of the basin showed an upward trend with fluctuations on the intergenerational scale, which reached the maximum in the 1990s; on the interannual scale it showed a drier trend year by year, in which the Jinghe River Basin, the middle reaches of the Weihe River and the lower reaches of the Weihe River played primary roles; on the annual scale,the drought characteristics was significant in spring and autumn, among which April and November were the driest. In 2010-2020, the calculation results of the Hurst coefficient of MHDI in all the sub basins were all less than 0.5, indicating that the drought of the basin would be alleviated to some extent. The research findings can provide a reference for the industrial and agricultural production in the Weihe River Basin.
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