水资源与水工程学报

李秀，郎琪，雷坤，程全国，刘中伟，商放泽，孟翠婷.基于Budyko假设的永定河流域上游不同支流径流变化归因分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2021,32(6):94-101

基于Budyko假设的永定河流域上游不同支流径流变化归因分析

Attribution analysis of tributary runoff variations in upper Yongding River Basin based on Budyko Hypothesis

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2021.06.13

中文关键词: 径流变化归因分析气候因素人为因素 Budyko假设永定河上游

英文关键词:runoff variation attribution analysis climatic factor human factor Budyko hypothesis upper Yongding River Basin

基金项目:“十三五”国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2018ZX07111002)

作者	单位
李秀^1,2，郎琪¹，雷坤¹，程全国²，刘中伟³，商放泽⁴，孟翠婷²	(1.中国环境科学研究院，北京 100012； 2.沈阳大学, 辽宁沈阳 110044； 3.水利部河湖保护中心，北京 100012； 4.中电建生态环境集团有限公司，广东深圳 518102)

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中文摘要:

针对永定河流域径流锐减的突出问题，将线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、双累积曲线等水文统计法与基于Budyko假设的互补关系概念模型相结合，从定性和定量角度分析桑干河和洋河流域1957-2017年水文气象要素和NDVI（归一化植被指数）的演变趋势，并量化不同因素对其径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：1957-2017年期间，桑干河、洋河子流域径流深均呈显著减小趋势，减小速率为6.236和6.520 mm/10a，分别在1969、1983和1998年发生突变；降水量均呈微弱减少趋势，气温和NDVI均呈显著升高趋势，上升速率分别为0.321、0.296 ℃/10a和0.019/10a、0.016/10a。敏感性系数分析表明，桑干河和洋河流域径流对降水量表现为正敏感，干扰期敏感系数分别为0.08和0.09，对潜在蒸散量表现为负敏感，干扰期敏感系数分别为-0.03和-0.02。基于Budyko假设的互补关系法结果表明，相较于基准期，桑干河和洋河径流分别减少27.5和22.2 mm，降水量、潜在蒸散量和下垫面变化对桑干河径流变化的贡献率为16.7%、1.1%、82.2%，对洋河径流变化的贡献率为7.2%、-4.5%、97.3%。人类活动干扰导致的下垫面变化是永定河上游径流减少的主要原因，相较于桑干河子流域，洋河子流域径流受人类活动的影响更为显著。

英文摘要:

In view of the prominent problem of sharp runoff decline in the Yongding River Basin, we combined multiple hydrologic analysis methods of linear tendency, Mann-Kendall trend test and double accumulation curve with the complementary relationship conceptual model based on Budyko hypothesis to analyze the evolution trend of the Sanggan River Sub-basin and the Yanghe River Sub-basin from a qualitative and quantitative perspective, and to quantify the contribution rates of different factors to the runoff changes. The results showed that the runoff decreased significantly in the Sanggan River Sub-basin and the Yanghe River Sub-basin during 1957-2017, with the deceleration rate of 6.236 and 6.520 mm/10a and the abrupt change in 1969, 1983 and 1998, respectively. Precipitation decreased slightly; but both the temperature and NDVI increased significantly, with the acceleration rates of 0.321, 0.296 ℃/10a and 0.019/10a, 0.016/10a in the two sub-basins. The sensitivity coefficient analysis showed that the runoff of the two sub-basins was positively sensitive to the precipitation, and the sensitivity coefficients were 0.08 and 0.09 during the interference period; however it was negatively sensitive to the potential evapotranspiration, and the sensitivity coefficients were -0.03 and -0.02 during the interference period. The results of the complementary method based on Budyko hypothesis showed that the runoff of the Sanggan River Sub-baisn and Yanghe River Sub-basin decreased 27.5 and 22.3 mm respectively compared with those of the base period. The contribution rate of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and change of the underlying surface to the Sanggan River runoff was 16.7%, 1.1%, 82.2%, and to the Yanghe River runoff was 7.2%, -4.5%, 97.3%, respectively. The change of underlying surface caused by human activity interference was mainly responsible for the decrease of runoff in the upper Yongding River Basin, compared with the Sanggan River Sub-baisn, the runoff in the Yanghe River Sub-baisn was more significantly affected by human activities.

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