• (1)2008-2021年连续14年获得中国科技核心期刊
  • (2)2021年被中国科学院文献情报中心中国科学引文数据库CSCD(核心库)收录(2021-2022)
  • (3)热烈庆祝《水资源与水工程学报》入编北京大学图书馆《中文核心期刊要目总览》2020年版
肖 杨, 周 旭, 蒋 啸, 杨大方, 李洪广.降水和人类活动对乌江上游径流变化的影响分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2021,32(3):91-98
降水和人类活动对乌江上游径流变化的影响分析
Impact of precipitation and human activities on the change of runoff in the upper reaches of Wujiang River
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2021.03.13
中文关键词:  径流变化  降水  人类活动  累积量斜率变化率比较法(SCRCQ)  乌江上游
英文关键词:runoff change  precipitation  human activity  slope change ratio of cumulative quantity(SCRCQ)  upper reaches of Wujiang River
基金项目:贵州省科学技术项目(黔科合基础[2017]1131);贵州省科技支撑项目(黔科合支撑[2017]2855)
作者单位
肖 杨, 周 旭, 蒋 啸, 杨大方, 李洪广 (贵州师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 贵州 贵阳 550025) 
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中文摘要:
      径流量变化与气候和人类活动密切相关,其相互作用使得流域水循环发生变化,对气候变化和人类活动进行定量分析,可为流域调控水资源效率、协调农业发展等提供参考。以乌江上游为例,基于鸭池河水文站和流域内及周边共12个气象站,根据1960-2013年长时间序列实测径流与气象资料,利用Mann-Kendall法、累积距平法判断流域降水量和径流量的突变时间,用Morlet小波法对径流量进行周期变化分析,重点分析乌江上游流域降水与人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:1960-2013年间,径流量与降水量无显著增加趋势;径流量和降水量在此期间存在1986和2002年两个突变点,且突变特征和阶段特征同步;径流量与降水量的共振周期为18~19 a及19~20 a,流域径流量对降水量变化具有一定滞后作用,滞后时间为1~2 a;以1960-1986年为基准期,1987-2002年降水和人类活动对径流的贡献率分别为50.93%和49.70%,2003-2013年降水和人类活动对径流的贡献率分别为49.30%和50.70%。降水对径流变化的影响程度在降低,而人类活动对径流变化的作用在增大,因此,未来流域水资源管理应重视良性人类活动的构建与调控。
英文摘要:
      Runoff change is closely related to climate and human activities, and the interaction between them changes the water cycle of the basin. So the quantitative analysis of climate change and human activities can serve as a reference for the regulation of water resources efficiency and the coordination of agricultural development in the basin. Taking the upper reaches of Wujiang River as the research object, based on the long-term series of measured runoff and meteorological data from 1960 to 2013 of Yachi River Hydrological Station and a total of 12 weather stations in the basin and its periphery, the abrupt changes of precipitation and runoff were recognized using Mann-Kendall and cumulative anomaly method, and the characteristics of the periodic change of runoff was analyzed using Morlet wavelet method with the emphasis on the effects of human activities and precipitation on runoff change in the upper reaches of Wujiang River. The results indicated that from 1960 to 2013, there was no significant increase in runoff and precipitation, two abrupt changes of both occurred in 1986 and 2002 with synchronized characteristics and phases during this period. The resonant periods of runoff and precipitation were 18-19 a and 19-20 a respectively. The runoff of the basin had a certain lagging effect on precipitation changes, and the lag time was 1 to 2 a. Taking 1960-1986 as the base period, the contribution of precipitation and human activities on runoff from 1987 to 2002 was 50.93% and 49.70%, whereas it was 49.30% and 50.70% from 2003 to 2013, respectively. The impact of precipitation on runoff was decreasing whereas that of human activities was increasing. Therefore, the water resources management should focus on the construction and regulation of benign human activities in the future.
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