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蔡俐辰, 李志威, 游宇驰, 黄 草.1956-2016年拉萨河径流量变化及影响因素分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2021,32(2):90-96
1956-2016年拉萨河径流量变化及影响因素分析
Analysis of runoff changes in Lhasa River from 1956 to 2016 and the influencing factors
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2021.02.13
中文关键词:  径流变化  降水量  人类活动  双累积曲线法  拉萨河
英文关键词:runoff change  precipitation  human activity  double mass curve  Lhasa River
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(91647204、51979012); 湖南省教育厅重点项目(19A017);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2020JJ3036)
作者单位
蔡俐辰1, 李志威1,2, 游宇驰1, 黄 草1,2 (1.长沙理工大学 水利工程学院 湖南 长沙 410114 2.水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室 湖南 长沙 410114) 
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中文摘要:
      通过分析拉萨河径流量的演变规律和突变情况,开展降水和人类活动对径流量变化的成因分析,为拉萨河流域水资源管理与利用提供科学依据。基于1956-2016年的径流和降水数据,利用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、累积距平-滑动t检验法和降水-径流双累积曲线法,统计分析拉萨河径流序列的趋势性和突变性,计算降水与人类活动对拉萨河汛期6-9月径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明: 1956-2016年拉萨河径流量年际变化波动较大,其中1995和2005年为径流量突变年份。以1956-1994年为基准期,通过双累积曲线法定量分析表明1995-2004年人类活动对汛期径流量变化的贡献率小于50%,而2005-2016年人类活动的贡献率增大至70%以上,即人类活动成为汛期径流量改变的主要影响因素,且下游河道人类活动的影响程度更大,主要原因是新建的直孔和旁多水库调控了下游河段的流量过程。
英文摘要:
      The variation trend and the abrupt changes of runoff in the Lhasa River Basin were analyzed, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff were quantitively calculated to provide statistical support for the management and utilization of water resources in the area. Based on the runoff and precipitation data from 1956 to 2016, the variation trend and abrupt changes of runoff were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend analysis, cumulative anomaly-sliding t test method and double mass curve method, as well as the contribution of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change from June to September. The results showed that in the past 61 years, the inter annual variation of the runoff fluctuated greatly, and abrupt changes of flood season runoff occurred in 1995 and 2005. Using the years of 1956-1994 as the base period, the quantitative analysis of the double mass curve method revealed that the proportion of human activity contribution to the runoff from 1995 to 2004 was less than 50%, then it rose up to be more than 70% in the period of 2005-2016, which became the dominating influencing factor of runoff changes in flood season with a greater impact on the lower reaches of the river. This is mainly attributed to the newly built Zhikong Reservoir and Pangduo Reservoir, which regulated the flow process.
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