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赵志龙, 罗 娅, 杨胜天, 余军林, 刘 洋, 石春茂, 徐 雪.基于均一化序列的贵州高原1960-2018年气温时空变化特征分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2021,32(2):81-89
基于均一化序列的贵州高原1960-2018年气温时空变化特征分析
Characteristics of temperature spatiotemporal variations in Guizhou Plateau from 1960 to 2018 based on homogenized sequence
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2021.02.12
中文关键词:  气温  时空变化  均一性  启发式分割算法  极点对称模态分解方法(ESMD)  贵州高原
英文关键词:temperature  spatiotemporal variation  homogeneity  Bernaola-Galavan(B-G) algorithm  extreme point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD)  Guizhou Plateau
基金项目:贵州省普通高等学校科技拔尖人才支持计划项目(黔教合KY字[2018]042);贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2020]4Y016号);贵州省2019年度哲学社会科学规划重点课题(19GZZD07);贵州省水利科技项目(2020ZC01)
作者单位
赵志龙1,2, 罗 娅1, 杨胜天3,4, 余军林5, 刘 洋1, 石春茂1, 徐 雪1 (1.贵州师范大学 地理与环境科学学院 贵州 贵阳 550025 2.山东省菏泽第一中学山东 菏泽 2740003.贵州师范大学 生态文明学院 贵州 贵阳 550025 4.北京师范大学 水科学研究院北京 100875 5.贵州省水利科学研究院 贵州 贵阳 550001) 
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中文摘要:
      基于均一化处理后的1960-2018 年贵州高原34个气象站的日均气温资料,利用Mann-Kendall检验、启发式分割算法、极点对称模态分解方法(ESMD)等方法对贵州高原不同时空尺度下的气温变化规律进行研究。结果表明:1960-2018年贵州高原气温显著升高,呈现“非线性、非平稳、跳跃式”的上升特征,气温倾向率为0.171 0 ℃/10a,并在1997年发生突变;1998-2012年出现与全球增温“停滞”相一致的升温减缓现象;春夏秋冬四季气温均检测到突变,秋冬季气温对全年升温的贡献最大,夏季最小;空间上呈现全域升温的态势,其中第Ⅱ阶梯对整个区域的贡献率最大;四季气温变化的分布与全年类似,除春季外的季节均呈自西向东3级阶梯升温倾向率减小的格局。研究结果对于贵州高原提高应对全球气候变暖的能力具有现实意义,可为该地区合理利用水热资源、制定可持续发展战略提供决策支持。
英文摘要:
      Based on the homogenized average daily temperature observations of 34 meteorological stations in Guizhou Plateau from 1960 to 2018, the characteristics of temperature variations in Guizhou Plateau at different spatiotemporal scales was studied using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, Bernaola-Galavan (B-G ) algorithm, extreme point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) and other methods. The results show that in the past 59 years, the temperature in Guizhou Plateau has significantly increased, with an inclination rate of 0.171 0 °C/10a. Temperature abrupt changes occurred in 1997, and showed a rising trend of “non linear-non stationary-jumping”. From 1998 to 2012, the phenomenon of warming mitigation was consistent with the “stagnation” of global warming. Abrupt changes were detected in all of the four seasons. Temperatures of autumn and winter contributed the most to the annual temperature increase, whereas that of summer contributed the least. The temperature showed a rising trend in all regions spatially, among which the second step area contributed the most to the warming of the entire region. The distribution of temperature variation of four seasons was similar to that of the annual temperature variation, the temperature inclination rate all decreased from west to east in the third step area except in spring. The research results are of practical significance for the Guizhou Plateau to improve its ability in response to global warming, and can provide decision support for the rational use of hydrothermal resources and the formulation of sustainable development strategies in the region.
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