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刘引鸽, 龙 颜, 郑润禾, 周欢欢, 黄 雪, 胡浩楠.渭河流域上游气候变化及其对径流的影响水资源与水工程学报[J].,2020,31(6):1-8
渭河流域上游气候变化及其对径流的影响
Climate change and its impact on runoff in the upper Weihe River Basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2020.06.01
中文关键词:  气象要素  径流  气候变化  渭河上游
英文关键词:climatic factors  runoff  climate change  upstream of Weihe River
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41771048);国家社会科学基金项目(15XZZ012);宝鸡文理学院重点项目(ZK16061)
作者单位
刘引鸽, 龙 颜, 郑润禾, 周欢欢, 黄 雪, 胡浩楠 (宝鸡文理学院 地理与环境学院 陕西 宝鸡 721013) 
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中文摘要:
      气候要素变化对水文循环有很大的影响。依据包括气温、降水量、风速、日照时间、蒸发量等气候要素在内的渭河上游25个气象站1960-2017年的数据及4个水文站1960-2010年的径流数据,利用气候诊断法、相关分析法、双累积曲线法分析各气候要素与径流量的时空变化特征及其相关关系,探讨自然气候和不同强度人类活动对区域径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:渭河上游区域年均温上升速率为0.29 ℃/10a,年降水量、年均风速、日照时间、蒸发量的减少速率分别为-14.36 mm/10a、-0.05 (m·s-1)/10a、-19.91 h/10a、-4.64 mm/10a,林家村、北道、武山、渭源水文站径流量分别以-5.074×108、-2.895×108、-1.201×108、-0.033×108 m3/10a减少;气候要素季节变化与年变化基本一致,但空间变化有所差异;各气候要素表现出20~30 a的主周期变化,同时也存在突变特征。相关分析表明,径流量与气温、日照时间和蒸发量呈显著负相关,气温升高0.1℃、日照时间增加1 h、蒸发量增加10 mm,径流量分别减少1.09×108、0.03×108、0.53×108 m3;与降水量正相关关系显著,降水量增加10 mm,则径流量增加0.61×108 m3;与风速关系较差。气候变化对径流量减少的贡献率在各区域及年代均不同,人类活动强度大的干流下游区域在5%~25%之间,强度较低的上游及源头区域在11%~43%之间,这与区域人类活动程度及气候要素的异常变化有密切关系。
英文摘要:
      Changes in climate factors have a great impact on the hydrological cycle. According to the data of 25 weather stations in the upper Weihe River including climate, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine and evaporation from 1960 to 2017 and the runoff data of 4 hydrological stations from 1960 to 2010, the climate diagnosis method, correlation analysis method, and double cumulative curve method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of climatic factors and runoff and their correlation. Meanwhile the contribution rates of climate and human activities of different intensities to the regional runoff were discussed. The results show that the average annual temperature in the upper Weihe River Basin rose by 0.29℃/10a, the decreasing rates of annual precipitation, annual average wind speed, sunshine duration and evaporation were -14.36 mm/10a, -0.05 (m·s-1/10a), -19.91 h/10a and -4.64 mm/10a, respectively. The runoff in Linjiacun, Beidao, Wushan, and Weiyuan Stations decreased by 5.074×108 m3/10a, 2.895×108 m3/10a, 1.201×108 m3/10a, 0.033×108 m3/10a, respectively. Seasonal changes of climate factors were basically consistent with annual changes, but there were regional differences in spatial changes. Each climate factor showed a main cycle of 20-30 years supplemented with abrupt changes. Correlation analysis shows that the runoff was significantly negatively correlated with temperature, sunshine duration and evaporation. With the increase of temperature by 0.1℃, sunshine duration by 1 h and the decrease of evaporation by 10 mm, and runoff decreased by 1.09×108 m3, 0.03×108 m3, 0.53×108 m3, respectively. However it presented a significant positive correlation with precipitation, with the increase of precipitation by 10 mm, the runoff increased by 0.61×108 m3. Besides, it was poorly correlated with wind speed. The contribution rate of climate change to the runoff reduction varied in different regions and years, which was between 5% and 25% in the downstream area of Weihe mainstream with high human activity intensity, and 11%-43% in the upstream and source area with low human activity intensity. These findings are closely related to the intensity of regional human activities and abnormal changes in climatic factors.
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