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董钊煜, 彭 涛, 董晓华, 刘 冀, 常文娟, 林青霞.1960-2016年三峡库区极端降水事件时空变化特征水资源与水工程学报[J].,2020,31(5):93-101
1960-2016年三峡库区极端降水事件时空变化特征
Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Three Gorges Reservoir area during 1960-2016
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2020.05.14
中文关键词:  极端降水事件  极端降水指数  时空变化  小波分析  三峡库区
英文关键词:extreme precipitation event  extreme precipitation index  spatiotemporal variation  wavelet analysis  the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目 (2017YFC0405603、2017YFC0405606) ; 国家自然科学基金项目 (51709151); 水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究项目 (DJ-ZDZX-2016-02)
作者单位
董钊煜1, 彭 涛1,2,3, 董晓华1,2,3, 刘 冀1,2,3, 常文娟1,2,3, 林青霞1,2,3 (1.三峡大学 水利与环境学院 湖北 宜昌 443002 2.水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 湖北 武汉 430072 3.三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心, 湖北 宜昌 443002) 
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中文摘要:
      利用三峡库区20个气象站1960-2016年的逐日降水资料,应用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall 突变分析法、小波分析法和克里金插值法,分析库区极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:1960-2016年,三峡库区极端降水事件总体上呈现减少的趋势,其中Rx5day、CWD减少趋势显著,而SDII、Rx1day、R99p等指数表现为不显著增加趋势,这可能是由于PRCPTOT减少速率小于CWD而造成了雨量再分配;极端降水指数突变多发生于1990年前后;PRCPTOT、R10、R95p的气候倾向率在三峡库区中部地区均表现为明显下降趋势,而CWD则在东北和西南部呈增加趋势,表明三峡库区极端降水存在均化的趋势;三峡库区极端降水指数的变化主周期相似,大多数为4~6 a的短周期,仅R10与R25存在12~16 a的中周期,表明三峡库区极端降水事件正在向强度大、周期短的方向演化;气候因子均对极端降水指数有较大影响,太阳黑子相对数与极端降水指数呈正相关关系,其他则为负相关,在时序性上,表现为PRCPTOT滞后于大多数气候因子。该研究可为三峡库区极端气候变化的模拟预测及防灾减灾提供参考。
英文摘要:
      Daily precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) from 1960 to 2016 was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events with the methods of linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis, and kriging interpolation. The results show that the extreme precipitation in the TGRA generally showed a decreasing trend in the past 57 years, among which Rx5day and CWD decreased significantly, whereas SDII, Rx1day, and R99p increased insignificantly. The reason for this phenomenon could be that PRCPTOT decreased at a slower rate than CWD, which caused the rainfall redistribution. Most of the abrupt changes of extreme precipitation indices occurred around 1990. The climatic tendency rates of PRCPTOT, R10, and R95p all showed a significant downward trend in the central part of the TGRA, except that CWD showed an increasing trend in the northeast and southwest of the TGRA, indicating a homogenizing trend of extreme precipitation in the area. The extreme precipitation indices had similar main changing cycles in the TGRA, most of them had a short cycle of 4-6 a, with the exception of R10 and R25, which had a medium cycle of 12-16 a, indicating that the extreme precipitation events in the TGRA were evolving in the direction of high intensity and short cycles. Climatic factors had a great impact on extreme precipitation indices, among which relative sunspot number was positively correlated with the extreme precipitation indices, whereas the other factors were all negatively correlated with them. In terms of time sequence, PRCPTOT lagged behind from most climatic factors. This study can provide a reference for the prediction of extreme climate changes and the prevention and reduction of disasters in the TGRA.
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