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王 婷, 毛德华.中国主要粮食作物虚拟水—虚拟耕地复合系统利用评价及耦合协调分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2020,31(4):40-49
中国主要粮食作物虚拟水—虚拟耕地复合系统利用评价及耦合协调分析
Evaluation and coupling coordination analysis of virtual water-virtual cultivated land system of main grain crops in China
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2020.04.06
中文关键词:  主要粮食作物  虚拟水  虚拟耕地  耦合协调度
英文关键词:major grain crops  virtual water  virtual cultivated land  coupling coordination degree
基金项目:国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金项目(U19A2051); 湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ 2018179-09); 湖南省重点研发计划项目(2017SK2301); 湖南省国土资源科技项目(2012-44)
作者单位
王 婷, 毛德华 (湖南师范大学 资源与环境科学学院 湖南 长沙 410081) 
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中文摘要:
      粮食生产离不开水土资源的支撑,农业水土资源的协调发展是保障国家粮食安全持续性和稳定性的重要前提。基于虚拟水、虚拟耕地视角,构建了虚拟水-虚拟耕地复合系统协调发展的评价指标体系,引入耦合度和耦合协调度函数,结合时间序列和空间自相关分析方法,测算了1998、2005、2010和2017年中国31个省域的耦合度、耦合协调度和子系统综合发展评价值,对我国主要粮食作物省域虚拟水-虚拟耕地复合系统发展状况进行时空分析。结果表明:省域主要粮食作物虚拟水系统与虚拟耕地系统综合发展水平的时间变化趋势趋于一致,均呈现先下降后回升再下降的过程;空间分布格局呈现出东部和中部高、西部低的特征,空间分异有所增强;耦合协调方面,在时序演变上,省域主要粮食作物虚拟水-虚拟耕地复合系统耦合度高,彼此相互作用及影响,形成耦合共生系统,但复合系统耦合协调度远低于耦合度,存在着较大的提升空间,等级分布结构呈现“两头少,中间多”的纺锤型分布,在空间分布上,呈现显著的正向空间自相关性,但大多数省域的空间集聚类型处于不稳定状态。
英文摘要:
      Grain production is inseparable from the support of water and land resources. The coordinated development of agricultural water and land resources is an important prerequisite to the sustainability and stability of national food security. From the angle of virtual water and cultivated land, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the coordinated development of virtual water-virtual cultivated land composite system. With the adoption of coupling degree function and coupling coordination function, the coupling degree, coupling coordination degree and the evaluation of sub-system integrated development in 31 provinces of China in 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2017 were calculated and the development status of provincial virtual water-virtual cultivated land composite system of major grain crops in China was analyzed using time series and spatial autocorrelation method. The results show that the trends of the comprehensive development of the provincial virtual water systems and cultivated land systems were consistent, showing a process of decreasing-increasing-decreasing. Their spatial distribution pattern was high in the east and middle region but low in the west region, and the spatial differentiation was enhanced. In terms of coupling coordination and time series evolution, the provincial virtual water-virtual cultivated land composite systems of major grain crops had high coupling degree, water and land of the systems interacted with each other and formed a coupling symbiosis system; however, the coupling coordination degree of the composite systems was much lower than that of the coupling degree, which needs to be improved significantly. The hierarchical distribution structure was spindle-typed with "less at the ends but more in the middle". In spatial distribution, the provincial composite systems showed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, but the spatial agglomeration types of most provinces were in an unstable state.
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