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刘裕辉, 刘惠英, 卢怡诗.赣江上游章水流域极端降水时空变化特征水资源与水工程学报[J].,2020,31(2):65-73
赣江上游章水流域极端降水时空变化特征
Spatial-temporal variation of the extreme precipitation events in Zhangshui River Basin in the upper reaches of Ganjiang
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2020.02.10
中文关键词:  极端降水  时空变化  章水流域  赣江流域
英文关键词:extreme precipitation  spatial-temporal variation  Zhangriver River Basin  Ganjiang River Basin
基金项目:江西省教育厅科研项目 (GJJ161098);国家自然科学基金项目(41761058)
作者单位
刘裕辉, 刘惠英, 卢怡诗 (南昌工程学院 水利与生态工程学院 江西 南昌 330099) 
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中文摘要:
      以赣江上游章水流域内15个雨量站1957-2016年逐日降水资料为基础,获取了12个极端降水指数。分别采用线性趋势、Modified Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、累积距平法、Pettitt突变检验法、小波分析、Hurst指数分析和克里金插值等方法对12个极端降水指数的时空变化特征进行探讨。结果表明:1957-2016年间,暴雨量及日数、强降水量及贡献率和最大湿润日数均呈现上升趋势,极强降水量及贡献率、最大干旱日数、年最大雨量、连续5日最大雨量呈现下降趋势,且其未来趋势均将得到加强;大雨量及日数呈现上升趋势,但未来趋势将可能减弱;所有极端降水指数的过去趋势均不具有显著性,同时未发生显著的突变,并且普遍存在以1988年为中间轴的33~34 a主周期;大雨量及日数、暴雨量及日数、强降水量、最大湿润日数、年最大雨量、连续5日最大雨量的高值中心均在流域西南区域的内良站附近,并呈上升趋势,低值区域主要分布在流域的东部区域,并呈现下降趋势,且其整体空间分布大致相同,均为西南向东北递减;而强降水贡献率及极强降水贡献率为东南向西北递减,最大干旱日数是从东向西的递减趋势。未来章水流域极端降水的变化趋势可能还会增强,加强流域极端降水事情的预防对流域水旱灾害防治意义重大。
英文摘要:
      Based on daily precipitation data of 15 rainfall stations in Zhangshui River Basin in the upper reaches of Ganjiang from 1957 to 2016, 12 extreme precipitation indexes were selected to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of this area using linear trend test, Modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, cumulative anomaly method, Pettitt test, Morlet analysis, Hurst index analysis and Kriging interpolation method. The results showed that over the last 60 years,the volume of rainstorm and its duration days, the heavy precipitation and its contribution rate, and the maximum number of wet days all showed an increasing trend, whereas the extremely strong precipitation and its contribution rate, the maximum number of dry days, the maximum annual rainfall and the maximum rainfall of five consecutive days showed a decreasing trend, which would be further strengthened in the future. Nevertheless heavy rainfall and its duration days showed an upward trend, with an inclination of weakening in the future. It is concluded that all the past trends of extreme precipitation indexes are not significant with no sign of abrupt changes, and the main cycle of 33–34 a with 1988 as the intermediate axis generally exists. The high value centers of heavy rainfall and its duration days, rainstorm and its duration days, heavy precipitation, maximum number of wet days, annual maximum rainfall and maximum rainfall of five consecutive days are all located near the Neiliang station in the southwest region of the basin, and show an upward trend. The low value areas are mainly distributed in the eastern region of the basin and present a downward trend. Their overall spatial distributions are roughly the same, both decreasing from southwest to northeast; However, the contribution rate of heavy precipitation and extremely strong precipitation decreases from southeast to northwest, and the maximum number of dry days decreases from east to west. In the future, the change trend of extreme precipitation in Zhangshui River Basin may deteriorate, and strengthening the prediction of extreme precipitation is of great significance to the prevention of flood and drought disasters in this river basin.
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