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薛嵩嵩, 高 凡, 何 兵.径流序列变异诊断的近似熵与样本熵法对比研究——以新疆叶尔羌河为例水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(6):24-29
径流序列变异诊断的近似熵与样本熵法对比研究——以新疆叶尔羌河为例
A comparative study of approximate entropy and sample entropy in the diagnosis of variation of runoff series:a case study in Yarkant River in Xinjiang, China
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.06.05
中文关键词:  径流序列  变异诊断  样本熵法  近似熵法  叶尔羌河
英文关键词:runoff series  diagnosis of aberrance point  sample entropy method  approximate entropy method  Yarkant River
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51769036); 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2017D01A43)
作者单位
薛嵩嵩1, 高 凡1, 何 兵2 (1.新疆农业大学 水利与土木工程学院 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052 2.西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室 陕西 西安 710048) 
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中文摘要:
      识别并诊断径流序列的变异点,是进行径流序列重构与一致性再建立的关键环节,对于认识水文机理、应对径流变化具有重要价值。选取1957-2016年叶尔羌河出山口卡群水文站实测日径流量数据,采用传统Mann-Kendall突变检验法识别突变点,采用样本熵和近似熵法诊断序列的变异点并进行方法对比。结果表明:采用传统的突变检验方法Mann-Kendall法进行突变点识别时,出现了多个虚假变异点,无法准确断定突变年份;采用近似熵法对径流量序列进行变异点诊断,发现1959、1987和2004年3个变异点,采用样本熵法对径流量序列进行变异点诊断,发现1987和2004年两个变异点。通过两种方法的对比分析发现,在同一维度下,样本熵较近似熵能更好地反映径流量序列的波动情况,并且样本熵具有更好的灵敏度。卡群站以上为高山分布区,人为干扰较小,自然因素成为影响研究区径流变化的主要因素。
英文摘要:
      Identifying and diagnosing the aberrance point of runoff series is a key link in the reconstruction and consistency of runoff series, which is of great value for understanding hydrologic mechanism and coping with runoff changes. The measured daily runoff data of the Kaqun hydrologic station at the Yarkant River exit from 1957 to 2016 were selected. The traditional Mann-Kendall mutation test was used to identify the mutation points and the sample entropy and approximate entropy methods were used to diagnose the aberrance points of the sequence and compare the methods. The results showed that the traditional mutation test method Mann-Kendall method found multiple false mutation points, which cannot accurately determine the year of the mutation. The approximate entropy method was used to diagnose the aberrance point of the runoff sequence, and the year of 1959, 1987 and 2004 were found. For the mutation point, the sample entropy method was used to diagnose the aberrance point of the runoff sequence, and two aberrance points were found in 1987 and 2004, respectively. Through the comparative analysis of the two methods, we found that the sample entropy can better reflect the fluctuation of the runoff series than the approximate entropy in the same dimension, and the sample entropy has better sensitivity. The upstream of Kaqun Station is the alpine distribution area, the human disturbance is small, and the natural factors become the main factors affecting the runoff change in the study area.
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