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陈 磊.香港沿岸台风暴潮灾害联合强度概率分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(6):20-23
香港沿岸台风暴潮灾害联合强度概率分析
Joint intensity probability analysis of tythoon storm surge disasters along the coast of Hong Kong
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.06.04
中文关键词:  台风  风暴最大增水  暴潮灾害  联合重现频率  二元Copula函数  香港沿岸
英文关键词:typhoon  maximum storm surge  tythoon storm surge disaster  joint recurrence frequency  Copula function  the coast of Hong Kong
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目 (51109188)
作者单位
陈 磊 (浙江大学舟山海洋研究中心, 浙江 舟山 316021) 
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中文摘要:
      以香港东部鲗鱼涌和大埔滘两个验潮站的风暴增水数据为基础,以1999-2018年影响香港的台风过程所引发的风暴最大增水为研究对象,利用广义极值分布分别对两站的最大台风增水进行一元拟合,并基于二元Copula函数,构造两站最大台风增水的联合概率分布,根据其联合重现频率进行潮灾的联合强度概率分析。研究结果表明:两站台风暴潮最大增水变量的联合重现频次能够反映台风在香港东部引发的风暴潮的强度,这种联合概率分析较一元分析有更强的地区适用性。
英文摘要:
      Based on the storm surge data of the two tide stations in Quarry Bay and Tai Po Kau in the east of Hong Kong, this paper focuses on the maximum storm surge caused by the typhoon processes affecting Hong Kong in 1999-2018. The generalized extreme value distribution was applied to uniformly fit the maximum typhoon surge of the two stations, and the joint probability distributions of the maximum typhoon surge at the two stations were constructed, and the joint intensity of the tidal disaster was calculated according to the joint recurrence frequency analysis based on the bivariate Copula function. The results showed that the joint recurrence frequency of the maximum storm surge variables at the two stations can reflect the intensity of storm surges triggered by typhoons in eastern Hong Kong. This joint probability analysis has stronger regional applicability than the unitary analysis.
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