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范嘉炜, 黄锦林, 袁明道, 张旭辉, 谭 彩.基于子系统熵权模型的珠三角水资源承载力评价水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(3):100-105
基于子系统熵权模型的珠三角水资源承载力评价
Water resources carrying capacity evaluation of Pearl River Delta based on entropy weight model of subsystem
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.03.15
中文关键词:  水资源承载力  子系统  熵权  珠江三角洲
英文关键词:water resources carrying capacity  subsystem  entropy weight  Pearl River Delta
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402605);深圳市水务发展专项资金科技创新项目(20170103)
作者单位
范嘉炜1,2,3, 黄锦林1,2,3, 袁明道1,2,3, 张旭辉1,2,3, 谭 彩1,2,3 (1.广东省水利水电科学研究院 广东 广州 510635 2.河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室广东 广州 510635 3.广东省粤港澳大湾区水安全保障工程技术研究中心 广东 广州 510635) 
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中文摘要:
      科学合理地评价水资源承载力是促进区域可持续发展的有效途径。以珠江三角洲城市群为研究对象,建立了基于水资源承载子系统熵权的评价模型,与灰色关联理论相结合,对珠江三角区域水资源承载力子系统差异性进行分析。结果表明:各地区间水资源承载子系统等级与总等级均存在差别。除江门、惠州和肇庆外,其余地区水资源开发利用程度已接近饱和;深圳、佛山、珠海3市水资源供给对社会经济支持力较弱,已不能满足经济发展需求;江门和肇庆水资源承载力总等级虽然较高,但工、农业及居民生活用水效率低下,耗水率高,水资源未得到充分利用;东莞市在S4子系统的等级低于其他城市,应予以重点关注。提出的基于子系统熵权的分配方式可改善目前仍以传统熵权分配为主的现状,提供更加有针对性的评价结论。这对于合理分配在各个子系统的治理力度,以保证区域未来可持续协调发展具有一定的参考价值。
英文摘要:
      Reasonable evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is an effective way to promote regional sustainable development. This paper took the Pearl River Delta city cluster as the research object, established an evaluation model based on the entropy weight of the water resources carrying subsystem, and analyzed the difference of the water resources carrying subsystem in the Pearl River Delta by combining with the grey relational theory. The results showed that there are differences between the water resources carrying subsystem and the total grade in different regions. Except for Jiangmen, Huizhou and Zhaoqing cities, the development and utilization of water resources in other areas has reached saturation point. The supply of water resources in Shenzhen, Foshan and Zhuhai is insufficient to support social and economic development and cannot meet the needs of economic development. Although the total carrying capacity of water resources is high in Jiangmen and Zhaoqing, the water efficiency is low in industry, agriculture, and daliy consumption. The high water consumption rate means that water resources are not fully utilized. The S4 subsystem in Dongguan is lower than other cities, and should be paid more attention to. The method based on subsystem entropy weight proposed in this paper can improve the current situation of traditional entropy weight distribution and provide targeted evaluation conclusions. It has important reference value for the rational allocation of governance measures of each subsystem to ensure the sustainable and coordinated development in the future.
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