• 中国科技核心期刊
  • RCCSE中国核心学术期刊
  • 2000年荣获陕西省优秀科技期刊二等奖
  • 2003年荣获首届《CAJ-CD 规范》执行优秀期刊奖
  • 2007年全国期刊出版形式规范检查中,获首批A类合格期刊
  • 2007年度陕西省期刊出版形式规范检查评比中,荣获优秀期刊奖
  • 2008年6月进入《中国科技核心期刊》
  • 2009年科技期刊审读评优中,荣获"陕西省特色科技期刊奖"
蒋 楠, 高 成, 夏 欢.基于Copula函数的锦河与连锦河洪水遭遇分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(3):85-91
基于Copula函数的锦河与连锦河洪水遭遇分析
Analysis of flood encounters in Jin River and Lianjin River based on Copula function
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.03.13
中文关键词:  洪水遭遇  Frank函数  Copula函数水面线  优度评价准则
英文关键词:flood encounter  Frank function  Copula function surface line  goodness evaluation criteria
基金项目:江苏省水利科技项目(2017006);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2014B16814)
作者单位
蒋 楠1, 高 成1, 夏 欢2 (1.河海大学 水文水资源学院 江苏 南京 210098 2.河海大学 农业工程学院 江苏 南京 210098) 
摘要点击次数: 36
全文下载次数: 36
中文摘要:
      以实测洪峰流量估算Copula函数参数,建立联合概率分布模型计算连锦河和锦河洪水遭遇的概率。首先,建立4种最常见的Copula函数,并用Q-Q图及优度评价准则评价拟合效果,选择效果最佳的Frank函数进行洪水遭遇分析。结果表明,锦河与连锦河同时发生同一量级的洪水概率很小,锦河与连锦河同时发生20年一遇洪水的概率不大于0.61%,锦河10年一遇的大洪水遭遇连锦河20年一遇的洪水的概率高达23.01%。最后运用MIKE11模型计算该工况下锦河与连锦河的洪水水面线,其洪水遭遇概率的研究与水面线的计算成果对该市防洪工程具有重大意义。
英文摘要:
      The Copula function parameters were estimated by the measured flood peak flow, and the joint probability distribution model was established to calculate the flood encounters probability of the Lianjin River and Jin River. First, four kinds of the most common Copula functions were established, and the fitting effect was evaluated by Q-Q graph and goodness evaluation criterion, and the Frank function with the best effect was selected for flood encounter analysis. The results showed that the probability of flooding in the same magnitude of Jin River and Lianjin River is relatively small. The probability of a flood in the Jin River and Lianjin River at the same time is less than 0.61%. The probability of a once every 10 years flood in the Jin River and once every 20 years flood in Lianjin River was as high as 23.01%. Finally, the MIKE11 model was used to calculate the flood surface line of Jin River and Lianjin River under this condition. The study of the flood encounter probability and the calculation result of the water surface line are of great significance to the flood control project of the city.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭