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陈伟珂, 丁 聿.城市排水管网脆弱性变权评估研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(2):136-143
城市排水管网脆弱性变权评估研究
Evaluation of the vulnerability of urban drainage networks
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.02.21
中文关键词:  城市排水管网  脆弱性评估  惩罚型变权  灰色预测
英文关键词:urban drainage network  vulnerability assessment  punitive variable weight  grey prediction
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(17BGL210)
作者单位
陈伟珂, 丁 聿 (天津理工大学 管理学院 天津 300384) 
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中文摘要:
      为使“海绵城市”与城市排水管网融合发展,协同作用缓解城市内涝。以天津市为例,从“暴露度-敏感性-适应能力”三个维度构建了城市排水管网脆弱性评价指标体系;采用惩罚型变权综合评价模型进行城市排水管网的脆弱性“诊断”;利用MATLAB实现GM(1,1)模型对城市排水管网的脆弱性综合指数预测。研究结果表明:在2008-2017年期间,天津市城市排水管网脆弱性指数在0.442~0.652之间波动,总体呈上升走势。由预测结果可知,该趋势一直延伸至2018-2020年,脆弱度稳步于“轻度”;通过变权评价结果与常权评价结果的对比可知惩罚型变权综合评价模型能够消除常权评价结果中的泡沫,提高评价结果的客观性。
英文摘要:
      In order to integrate the “sponge city” with the urban drainage network, synergy can alleviate urban guilt. The study takes Tianjin as an example to construct the vulnerability evaluation index system of urban drainage network from the three dimensions of “exposure-sensitivity-adaptive ability”. The punitive variable weight comprehensive evaluation model was used to conduct the “diagnosis” of the vulnerability of urban drainage networks. The GM (1, 1) model in MATLAB was used to predict the vulnerability index of urban drainage network. The results indicated that the vulnerability index of urban drainage network in Tianjin fluctuated between 0.442 and 0.652, and the overall trend was upward during the period of 2008-2017. According to the forecast results, the trend extend to 2018-2020, and the vulnerability is steadily in the “light” range. Through comparison between the results of the variable power evaluation and the constant power evaluation, the comprehensive evaluation model of the punitive variable can eliminate the bubble in the constant power and improve the objectivity of the evaluation result.
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