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YACHONGTOU Bounheuang, 梁 婕, 曾光明, 李晓东, 雷曼琴, 刘 强.基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(2):88-94
基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应
Synergistic effect of land use and climate change on Liuyang River Basin runoff assessed by SWAT model
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.02.14
中文关键词:  径流  土地利用  气候变化  协同向应  SWAT模型  CA-Markov模型  浏阳河流域
英文关键词:runoff  land use change  climate change  synergistic effect  SWAT model  CA-Markov model  Liuyang River Basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51479072、51679082); 湖南省科技创新项目(2018RS3037); 湖南省自然科学基金项目(2019JJ20002); 湖南省水利科技项目(2017-230-20)
作者单位
YACHONGTOU Bounheuang1,2, 梁 婕1,2, 曾光明1,2, 李晓东1,2, 雷曼琴1,2, 刘 强1,2 (1.湖南大学 环境科学与工程学院 湖南 长沙 410082
2.湖南大学 环境生物与控制教育部重点实验室 湖南 长沙 410082) 
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中文摘要:
      气候和土地利用同时作用于流域径流,影响着流域水资源的量和质。以浏阳河流域为例,基于SWAT模型和情景分析方法定量评估未来流域内土地利用和气候变化对径流的作用。首先采用元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型模拟浏阳河流域2020和2050 年的土地利用空间格局,其次在WorldClim数据库中获得未来流域内气候变化数据,最后采用SWAT 模型定量评估未来不同情境下土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响。研究结果表明:未来浏阳河流域林地比例下降、城市建设用地和耕地比例增加;气候呈暖干趋势;2020和2050年,土地利用变化时,浏阳河榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少2.42和 0.96 m3/s ;气候变化时,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少3.02 和1.13 m3;土地利用和气候变化综合影响下,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少 8.54 和 4.27 m3/s;说明浏阳河流域径流的变化对气候响应更加敏感,土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响呈非线性协同作用。
英文摘要:
      Climate change and land use tend to affect watershed runoff simultaneously, which could potentially have a strong effect on the quantity and quality of water resources. This paper takes Liuyang River Basin as an example, to quantitatively assessing the synergistic impacts of runoff caused by land use and climate change in the future by applying SWAT model and scenario analysis. Firstly, the CA-Markov model was utilized to simulate spatial land use patterns of the study area in the years 2020 and 2050. Secondly, the weather data from WorldClim were obtained to represent the future climate change in study area. Lastly, SWAT model was established in Liuyang River Basin to simulate the runoff and thus quantitatively evaluate the effects of land use and climate change on runoff in the future. Results showed the area of forest would decrease, but the urban constructions and cultivated land would increase in the future. The future weather in Liuyang River Basin tends to be warmer and drier. The runoff of the Langli Station in the basin was anticipated to decline to 2.42 m3/s in 2020 and 0.96 m3/s in 2050 under the land use change scenarios. The runoff was declined to 3.02 m3/s in 2020 and 1.13 m3/s in 2050 under the climate change scenarios. Under the land use and climate change scenarios, the runoff was predicted to be decreased to 8.54 m3/s and 4.27 m3/s in 2020 and 2050, respectively. It revealed that the runoff in Liuyang River Basin tends to be more sensitive to climate change. In addition, the synthesized impacts of land use change and climate change to Liuyang River basin is nonlinear.
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