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覃 姗, 岳春芳, 何 兵, 李艺珍.金沟河流域水文气象要素关系变异诊断水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(2):50-56
金沟河流域水文气象要素关系变异诊断
Variation diagnosis of the relationship between hydrological and meteorological factors in the Jingou River basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.02.09
中文关键词:  变异诊断  水文气象要素  偏相关系数  数据滑动  金沟河流域
英文关键词:variation diagnosis  hydrometeorological elements  partial correlation coefficient  data sliding  Jingou River basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51569032)
作者单位
覃 姗, 岳春芳, 何 兵, 李艺珍 (新疆农业大学 水利与土木工程学院 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052) 
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中文摘要:
      为了研究全球气候变化背景下金沟河流域水文、气象要素变化特征,选取内陆干旱区金沟河流域八家户水文站1964-2016年实测年径流资料和同步实测气象(气温、降水)资料,在采用累积距平法、R/S分析法、M-K趋势检验法分析水文气象要素序列演变规律的基础上,运用Pearson相关系数法分析径流与气温、降水间的相关性,将偏相关系数法与数据滑动窗口技术相结合,分析径流与气象要素(气温、降水)间的相互关系及变异特征,最后采用双累积曲线法对变异点进行验证。结果表明:金沟河流域1964-2016年年径流量以极其微弱的趋势波动增加,增加趋势不显著(0α/2=1.96),并且未来一段时间内年径流量将继续保持上升趋势(H=0.68>0.5);同时段气温具有极显著的增加趋势(U=4.33>Uα/2=2.56>0),未来气温将呈现出明显的持续增加趋势(H=0.78>0.5);同时段降水具有显著的增加趋势(U=2.13>Uα/2=1.96>0),未来降水将持续增加(H=0.54>0.5);相关性分析表明,气温是影响金沟河流域径流的主要气象因子;滑动偏相关系数法分析表明,径流-气温联合序列变异点为1985年,采用双累积曲线法进行验证,结果与其一致。
英文摘要:
      In order to study the change characteristics of hydrological and meteorological factors of Jingou River Basin under the global climate change background, the measured monthly runoff data, and the synchronous measured temperature and precipitation data from 1964 to 2016 of Bajiahu Hydrological Station in Jingou River Basin in inland arid area were selected. Based on the accumulated variance analysis method, R/S method and Mann-Kendall trend test method, we analyzed the evolution law of hydrometeorological elements, and the correlation coefficient between runoff and temperature or precipitation by Pearson correlation coefficient method. By combining partial correlation with data sliding window technology, we analyzed the relationship and variation characteristics between runoff and meteorological elements (temperature and precipitation). Finally, the double cumulative curve method was used to verify the variation points. The results found that:the runoff data from 1964 to 2016 in Jingou River Basin has an increased trend, but not significant (0α/2=1.96), and the annual runoff would continue to rise for the foreseeable future (H=0.68>0.5). At the same time, the temperature in the interval had a very significant increase trend (U=4.33>Uα/2=2.56>0), and the future temperature would show a significant continuous increase trend (H=0.78>0.5). Meanwhile, precipitation in the interval had a significant increase trend (U=2.13>Uα/2=1.96>0), and precipitation would continue to increase in the future (H=0.54>0.5). The correlation analysis found that temperature was the main meteorological factor affecting runoff in Jingou River. The sliding partial correlation coefficient method results showed that the variation point of the runoff and temperature joint sequence was in 1985, and the result was consistent with those verified by the double cumulative curve method.
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