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符芳兵, 薛联青, 任 磊.淮河流域夏季旱涝前兆信号及预测水资源与水工程学报[J].,2019,30(1):13-20
淮河流域夏季旱涝前兆信号及预测
Precursor signals and prediction of summer drought and flood in the Huaihe River Basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.01.03
中文关键词:  北太平洋海温  500hPa高度  夏季旱涝前兆信号  预测模型  淮河流域
英文关键词:sea surface temperature(SST) of North Pacific  geopotential height of 500hPa  precursory signals of summer drought and flood  prediction model  Huaihe River Basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51779074、41371052); 水利部公益性行业专项(201501059); 江苏省水利科技项目(2017027)
作者单位
符芳兵, 薛联青, 任 磊 (河海大学 水文水资源学院 江苏 南京 210098) 
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中文摘要:
      淮河流域旱涝频繁,寻找旱涝前兆信号并建立预报机制意义重大。依据淮河流域1968-2017年的降水、太平洋海温和欧亚大陆范围内的500 hPa高度场资料,利用改进的Z指数法评定了淮河流域近50年来夏季旱涝的等级,寻找了影响流域降水的海温和大气压高度前兆信号,以其为预测因子,建立了流域夏季旱涝指标值预测的数学模型。结果表明:淮河流域旱涝灾情严重,呈现出南涝北旱的特征,旱灾有微弱的下降趋势,涝灾相反;海温前兆信号关键区位于千岛群岛、菲律宾海域到中太平洋地区以及Nino4区,500 hPa高度场前兆信号关键区域分布于东西伯利亚山地、东欧和西西伯利亚平原以及西亚地区;利用逐步回归法建立的方程,具有较好的预测精度和实用性,能够对淮河流域夏季降水的旱涝指数进行预测,可为流域旱涝监控和预测提供支持。
英文摘要:
      It is of great significance to find the precursory signals and establish a forecasting mechanism of drought and flood for the Huaihe River Basin due to the frequent drought and flood. Based on the precipitation data of the Huaihe River Basin, the sea surface temperature (SST) of North Pacific and the geopotential height of 500 hPa in Eurasian continent from 1968 to 2017, the improved Z-index method was used to assess the grade of summer drought and flood in the Huaihe River Basin in the past 50 years. The precursory signals from SST and geopotential height of 500 hPa that can affect precipitation were found. A mathematical model has been established for forecasting summer drought and flood index values in the Huaihe River Basin. The results showed that the drought and flood in the Huaihe River Basin were severe. The drought had a weak downward trend, but the flood was reversed. The key areas of the SST signal were located in the Thousand Islands, the Philippine Sea to the Central Pacific and the Nino4 district. The key areas of the 500 hPa height field are distributed in the east of the Siberian Mountains, the Eastern European and Western Siberian plains, and the West Asia region. The equations established by the stepwise regression method had good forecasting accuracy and practicability, and can predict the drought and flood index of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin. It also can be used for monitoring and forecasting drought and flood in the basin.
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