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滕 杰, 郭 明, 周政辉.汉江上游径流非一致性演变特征及频率分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2018,29(6):106-112
汉江上游径流非一致性演变特征及频率分析
Evolution characteristics and frequency analysis of runoff inconsistency in upper reaches of Hanjiang River
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.06.16
中文关键词:  趋势检验  演变特征  非一致性  频率分析  汉江上游
英文关键词:trend test  evolution characteristics  inconsistency  frequency analysis  upper reaches of Hanjiang River
基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402707),中国清洁发展机制基金项目(2014110)
作者单位
滕 杰1, 郭 明2,3, 周政辉4 (1.济南市卧虎山水库管理处 山东 济南 250115 2.中国水利水电科学研究院 北京 1000383.辽宁师范大学 城市与环境学院 辽宁 大连 116029 4.河南省漯河水文水资源勘测局 河南 漯河 462000) 
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中文摘要:
      受全球气候变化及大规模人类活动的影响,导致流域径流产生变化,水文序列发生变异。基于汉江上游武侯镇、洋县、安康3个水文站点逐日径流数据,采用Mann-Kendall及Lee-Heghinan法进行非一致性检验,并将变异的水文序列进行基于趋势分析的非一致性水文序列修正计算,根据Pearson-Ⅲ频率分布曲线确定修正前后不同保证率设计值,以期为水利工程规划设计与管理提供参考。结果表明:3站年径流呈递减趋势,递减率自上游向下游递增,均有变异发生,且下游变异时间略滞后于上游,区间汇水是控制下游水量及突变的主要因素;武侯镇年最大日径流微弱增加,洋县与安康递减;经一致性修正,对应近期气候与下垫面条件下100年一遇洪水设计值较历史值变化显著。
英文摘要:
      With the global climate change and largescale human activities, the runoff and hydrological sequence have changed at watershed scale. Based on daily runoff data from the three hydrological stations of Wuhou Zhen, Yangxian and Ankang in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, the inconsistency test was used the Mann-Kendall and Lee-Heghinan method. In addition, the variable hydrological time series of inconsistency was amend based on trend analysis. According to the Pearson-Ⅲ of the frequency distribution curve, the design values under different assure rates were determined to provide guidance for hydraulic engineering design and management. The results showed that annual runoff of the three hydrological stations decreased, and the decline rate from the downstream to the upstream increased. Besides, all of the annual runoff series changed, and the variation time in downstream lags slightly behind the upstream, the catchment was major factor in the controlling downstream flow and mutation. Annual maximum daily runoff had slightly increased at Wuhou Zhen, but showed decreasing trend at Yangxian and Ankang. Corresponding to recent climate and underlying surface conditions, the change of onceinacentury flood design value with consistency correction was greater than history value.
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