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陈媛媛, 朱记伟, 周 蓓, 解建仓.基于系统动力学的西安市复合生态系统情景分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2018,29(6):31-40
基于系统动力学的西安市复合生态系统情景分析
Scenario analysis of complex ecosystem of Xi'an city based on system dynamics
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.06.05
中文关键词:  系统动力学  城市复合生态系统  水土资源  情景分析  西安市
英文关键词:system dynamics  urban complex ecosystem  water and land resource  scenario analysis  Xi'an City
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401409); 国家自然科学基金项目(51479160、71774132)
作者单位
陈媛媛, 朱记伟, 周 蓓, 解建仓 (西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室 陕西 西安 710048) 
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中文摘要:
      为提高城市发展中水土资源的可持续利用,以西安市为例,基于系统动力学方法(SD)和复合生态系统理论,构建了“社会-经济-水资源-土地资源-生态环境”的城市复合生态系统模型,通过设置经济优先、环境保护和协调发展3种情景,分析对比了不同情景下2004-2025年西安市复合生态系统的变化趋势,并对协调发展方案下的水土资源利用、经济社会发展以及生态环境状况进行了仿真分析。结果表明:协调发展型方案是西安市水土资源利用的最优方案;2017年以后,西安市还将长期面临缺水且供水缺口较大,需要区外调水、新建水源工程才能满足市区用水需求;西安市建设用地面积将逐年增加,2025年将增至914.70 km2,耕地面积仍将逐年减少,2025年将减少至21.85×104 hm2;可通过推进节水型城市建设,推行土地集约化利用,发展第三产业、控制人口增长等措施,对西安市的水土资源开发利用进行调控。该研究可为城市水资源和土地资源的综合规划以及高效利用提供依据。
英文摘要:
      In order to improve the sustainable use of water and land resources in urban development, this study took Xi'an City as an example to construct the urban complex ecosystem model of “Social-Economic-Water resources-Land resources-Ecological environment”, based on the system dynamics method (SD) and compound ecosystem theory. By setting up three scenarios of economic priority, environmental protection and coordinated development, we analyzed and contrasted the trend of complex ecosystem in Xi'an from 2004 to 2025 under different scenarios. Moreover, the simulation analysis of the land and water resources utilization, economic and social development, and the ecological environment under the coordinated development program was conducted. The results showed that: the coordinated development scheme is the best plan for the utilization of water and land resources in Xi'an. After 2017, Xi'an will still face water shortage for a long time, and the water supply gap is large. In order to meet the urban water demand, it is very necessary to transfer water from other regions and to build new water source project. The area of construction land in Xi'an will increase year by year, and will increase to 914.70 km2 in 2025. The area of cultivated land will still be reduced year by year, and it will be reduced to 21.8546×104 hm2 in 2025. By promoting the construction of the water saving city, carrying out the intensive use of the land, developing the third industry and controlling the population growth, we can control the utilization of water and land resources in Xi'an. This study provides a basis for comprehensive planning and efficient utilization of urban water resources and land resources.
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