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吴 晗, 董增川, 蒋飞卿, 张 延.黄河源区气候变化特性分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2018,29(6):1-7
黄河源区气候变化特性分析
Analysis of climate change in the Source Regions of the Yellow River
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.06.01
中文关键词:  气候变化  突变性  趋势性  周期性  Mann-Kendall检验  Morlet小波分析  黄河源区
英文关键词:climate change  abrupt change  variation trend  cycle condition  Mann-Kendal  Morlet wavelet analysis  the Source Regions of the Yellow River
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401306);河海大学开发项目:龙羊峡水库年与多年调节库容研究开发项目(20168059416
作者单位
吴 晗, 董增川, 蒋飞卿, 张 延 (河海大学 水文水资源学院 江苏 南京 210098) 
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中文摘要:
      全球气候变化改变了水资源现状,黄河源区因其径流量偏枯的状态使得气候变化因素研究尤为重要。为研究黄河源区气候变化特性,选取12个国家气象站点1960-2016年近60年气温与降水量资料,综合分析黄河源区年内与年际气候变化特性。运用有序聚类分析法、Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动t检验法、线性趋势法、Spearman秩次相关检验法和Morlet小波分析法,得到最终结论:黄河源区四季均温增长态势均显著,冬季增长幅度最大;降水量在春、冬季呈显著增长态势,而夏秋季无明显下降趋势。年均气温序列突变点为1997年;降水量无明显的突变点。年均气温呈显著的递增趋势;而降水量序列无明显的递增趋势。年均气温存在着10、5与23a的年际变化周期情况;降水量存在着28、11与8a的年际变化周期情况。
英文摘要:
      Global climate change has changed the current situation of water resources. The study of climate change is particularly important in the source regions of the Yellow River due to its dry runoff. In order to study the characteristics of climate change in the source regions of the Yellow River, temperature and precipitation data from 12 national weather stations from 1960 to 2016 in the past 60 years were selected to comprehensively analyze the annual and interannual climate change characteristics with the methods of the ordered clustering, Mann-Kendall test, sliding T, linear fitting, Spearman and Morlet wavelet methods. The results show that the growth trend of the average temperature in the four seasons is significant with the largest increase in winter. Precipitation in spring and winter shows a significant growth trend, while no significant downward trend in summer and autumn. The abrupt change of annual average temperature is found in 1997 , whereas there is no obvious abrupt change of precipitation. In addition, the temperature has an obvious increasing trend, while the precipitation sequence shows no obvious increasing trend. The climate change interval analysis reveals that the annual average temperature fluctuates significantly with the intervals of 10, 5 and 23 years, and the annual precipitation fluctuates with the intervals of 28, 11 and 8 years, respectively.
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