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尹梓渊, 穆振侠, 汤 瑞, 周育琳, 彭 亮.天山西部地区汛期径流变化规律分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2018,29(5):95-100
天山西部地区汛期径流变化规律分析
Analysis on snowmelt runoff variation law of West Tianshan Mountain Area in flood season
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.05.15
中文关键词:  汛期径流  径流变化规律  流量质心时间  突变  天山西部地区
英文关键词:floodseason runoff  variation law of runoff  flow center time  abrupt  western part of Tianshan
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51469034、51209181、51569031)
作者单位
尹梓渊, 穆振侠, 汤 瑞, 周育琳, 彭 亮 (新疆农业大学 水利与土木工程学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052) 
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中文摘要:
      为了更好地认识天山西部地区融雪径流汛期的变化规律,为该区域水资源合理开发利用及为防洪减灾提供依据,基于1960-2005年的汛期径流资料及蒸发、降水数据,采用流量质心时间、滑动T检验、滑动F检验等方法,分析了汛期径流变化规律。研究结果表明:从流量质心时间结果来看,1960-2005年汛期有微弱提前的趋势;集中度、集中期、变化幅度在1960-2005年均表现为减小的趋势;汛期径流从1960-2005年呈现出增加的趋势,1997年发生了突变;通过分析得出1997年降水和蒸发均发生了突变,因此推测1997年汛期径流发生由少到多的突变,可能是由于1997年后降水发生由少到多的变化和蒸发的由多变少引起的。
英文摘要:
      In order to better understand the changing rules of flood-season runoff in the west Tianshan Mountain region, it is necessary to guide the rational development and efficient utilization of water resource and provide the basis for flood control and disaster mitigation there. Based on the floodseason runoff data, the evaporation data ,the precipitation data in 1960-2005, the runoff variation law of flood season is explored with the methods of center time(CT), moving-T test, and moving-F test. The results showed that flow center time that floodseason runoff had a slight advance tendency from 1960 to 2005; The results of concentration period, concentration degree and variation range showed a decreasing trend from 1960 to 2005; The floodseason runoff showed an increasing trend from 1960 to 2005, and the abrupt change of floodseason runoff occurred in 1997; It was concluded that abrupt change of evaporation and precipitation occurred in 1997.Therefore, it was inferred that the increase of abrupt change of floodseason runoff in 1997 was due to the increase of precipitation and the decrease of evaporation after 1997.
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