In order to evaluate the changes of water resources carrying capacity and its driving force in the Tarim River, taking the Aksu region as the research object, the principal component analysis method was used to analyze the water resources carrying capacity level from 2004 to 2014 and two principal components of socio-economic and ecological development level were extracted. The ecological vulnerability was selected as the ecological evaluation index and the dynamic change of the driving force ecological environment was analyzed by fuzzy hierarchy analysis. The results show that the water carrying capacity of Akesu area is declining with time from 2004 to 2014 and the F value is increased from -2.99 to 4.69. Its population, GDP and ecological water consumption rate are the main influencing factors. The ecological vulnerability is on the rise and increased from the mildly vulnerable zone of gradeⅠto the mightily vulnerable zone of grade III. The most influencing factor values of its forest cover and cultivating rate are 0.29 and 0.12, and by adjusting them, the ecological damage can be reduced to enhance the sustainability of water resources in the Aksu Region.