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张 涛, 蔡振华, 刘英豪, 于东平.基于年防洪标准的水库分期优化调度研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2018,29(1):128-133
基于年防洪标准的水库分期优化调度研究
Research on optimized reservoir staged operation based on annual flood control standard
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.01.21
中文关键词:  汛限水位  分期调度  概率组合  长系列模拟  风险效益转移  效益最大化
英文关键词:limited water level  staged operation  probability combination  long series simulation  risk-benefit transfer  maximum benefit
基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501054)
作者单位
张 涛1, 蔡振华2, 刘英豪1, 于东平1 (1.山东省水利勘测设计院 山东 济南 250013 2.山东省水文水资源勘测局 山东 济南 250014) 
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中文摘要:
      以棉花滩水库为例,在不降低年防洪标准的前提下进行汛限水位分期优化调度。采用传统水文频率分析法推求分期设计洪水,分期洪水组合概率应与年洪水概率一致;建立分期设计洪水频率与相应防洪库容的两变量序列,根据拟定汛限水位的防洪库容插值求得防洪风险率;在分期防洪风险率组合满足年防洪标准的前提下,根据发电、调洪规则及其它约束条件进行长系列模拟,对各分期进行风险和效益转移,寻求整体最大效益。结果表明:汛限水位前汛期取168.78 m、后汛期取169.58 m,防洪风险率分别为1.217%、0.783%,组合风险率为1.99%;与年防洪标准2%基本一致,同时具有较大的兴利效益。
英文摘要:
      Taking Mianhuatan reservoir as an example, staged optimization operation without reducing annual flood control standard is implemented. Traditional hydrological frequency method is used to calculate stage design flood, and probability combination should be consistent with annual flood probability. Two variable sequences between staged design flood control capacity and frequency are established. The flood risk is calculated according to flood control capacity under staged limited water level. Under the premise that risk combination satisfied annual flood control standard, long series simulation is conducted based on power generation and flood regulation rules, to seek great overall benefit by transferring stage's risk and benefit. The results show that, limited water level in main and secondary flood season is 168.78 m and 169.58m respectively, flood risk rate is namely 1.217% and 0.783%, whose combination risk ratio is 1.99%, consistent with annual flood control standard 2%,and has greate benefit.
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