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邓 鹏, 陈 菁, 陈 丹, 施红怡, 毕 博, 刘 志, 尹 越, 操信春.区域水-能源-粮食耦合协调演化特征研究——以江苏省为例水资源与水工程学报[J].,2017,28(6):232-238
区域水-能源-粮食耦合协调演化特征研究——以江苏省为例
The evolutionary characteristics analysis of the coupling and coordination among water, energy and food: take Jiangsu Province as an example
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.06.41
中文关键词:  水资源  能源  粮食  耦合  协调  江苏省
英文关键词:water resources  energy  food  coupling  coordination  Jiangsu Province
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403200); 江苏省水利科技重点项目(2014006); 江苏水利科技项目(2017079); 江苏省社会科学基金项目(17GLC013)
作者单位
邓 鹏1, 陈 菁1,2, 陈 丹1,2, 施红怡3, 毕 博1, 刘 志1, 尹 越1, 操信春1,2 1.河海大学 水利水电学院 江苏 南京 210098 2.南方地区高效灌排与农业水土环境教育部重点实验室 江苏 南京 210098 3.江苏省水利厅 江苏 南京 210029 
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中文摘要:
      随着我国淡水资源减少,能源需求增加,粮食供给的不确定性愈加严重。以江苏省为研究对象,通过构建水资源-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统耦合协调评价指标体系,采用熵值法对各子系统指标赋权,利用耦合协调模型进行对协调发展水平进行定量评价,并基于灰色GM(1.1)模型预测未来5年的耦合协调度。结果表明:江苏省2000-2015年W-E-F系统的综合评价指数整体上随时间呈上升趋势;耦合度基本保持高水平耦合;耦合协调度呈倒“U”型曲线,经历了初级协调、勉强协调、中级协调3个阶段,并在未来5年内向良好协调类过渡。但水资源与能源的发展水平仍滞后于粮食,故提高水与能源的利用效率,以促进区域的可持续发展。
英文摘要:
      With the reduction of fresh water resources and the increase of energy demand, the uncertainty of food supply has become more serious. Taking Jiangsu Province as the research object, in this paper the evaluation index system of water- energy-food (W-E-F) system interconnections was established,by using the entropy method the weight of each index was calculated,the coordinated development level was evaluated quantitatively by coupling coordination model , and then based on the gray GM (1.1) model the coupling coordination degree in the next five years was predicted. The results show that, the comprehensive evaluation index of W-E-F system in Jiangsu Province showed increasing trend over time from 2000 to 2015. The coupling degree kept a high level, the coupling coordination degree was inverted “U” curve, experiencing three stages of primary coordination, reluctant coordination, and intermediate coordination , and further raise to high level of coordination in the next five years. However, the level of development of water resources and energy still lags behind that of food. Therefore, the efficiency of water and energy use is enhanced so as to promote the sustainable development of the region.
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