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秦欢欢, 张保祥, 孟凡海.基于系统动力学的龙口市水资源供需问题研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2017,28(4):45-49
基于系统动力学的龙口市水资源供需问题研究
Study on water supply and demand of Longkou city based on system dynamics
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.04.08
中文关键词:  水资源供需  系统动力学  可持续发展  龙口市
英文关键词:water resource supply and demand  system dynamics  sustainable development  Longkou city
基金项目:东华理工大学省部共建核资源与环境国家重点实验室培育基地开放基金项目(NRE1516);东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104)
作者单位
秦欢欢1, 张保祥2, 孟凡海3 1.东华理工大学 省部共建核资源与环境国家重点实验室培育基地 水资源与环境工程学院江西 南昌 3300132.山东省水利科学研究院 山东 济南 250013 3.山东省龙口市水务局 山东 龙口 265701 
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中文摘要:
      为了研究山东省沿海发达城市龙口市的水资源供需问题,运用系统动力学方法,构建了龙口市水资源系统动力学模型,并设计4种发展情景模拟2009-2030年龙口市水资源需求水平,选取总需水量、缺水量、工业GDP、第三产业GDP和COD排放总量作为指标来评价龙口市的水资源供需状况。结果表明:龙口市水资源在未来无法满足社会经济发展的需求,无论采取何种发展情景,龙口市在未来年份不能够彻底解决缺水的问题,情景3(可持续发展型情景)可以有效缓解龙口市缺水的问题。在此基础上,提出了龙口市维持社会经济和水资源可持续发展的对策,即加强发展科学技术,综合考虑经济发展、水资源的开源和节流、产业结构调整及水环境控制和保护。
英文摘要:
      In order to study the water supply and demand in Longkou City, a coastal developed city in Shandong province, the System Dynamics (SD) approach is applied to develop a SD model of water supply and demand for the area. Four development scenarios has been designed to simulate the water demands of Longkou from 2009 to 2030. Total water demand, water deficit, industrial GDP, tertiary industrial GDP and COD emission were selected as the indexes to evaluate the water supply and demand situation of Longkou. The results show that the water resources of Longkou can not meet the needs of social economic development in the future. No matter what development scenario is adopted, the water deficit problem of Longkou will not be completely solved in future years. Scenario 3 (sustainable development scenario) can effectively alleviate the water deficit problem in Longkou. Based on these results and analysis, the countermeasures were put forward to maintain the sustainable development of social economy and water resources, namely, full use of science and technology, and comprehensively consider of economic development, “exploit new resources and conserve existing resources” of water resources, adjustment of industrial structure, and water environment control and protection.
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