Based on the data of precipitation, temperature and NCEP reanalysis data of Jingdezhen meteorological station from 1961 to 2001, a statistical downscaling model of SDSM for precipitation and temperature in Raohe river basin was established; According to A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC AR4 emission scenario special report, the output data of HADCM3 was downscaled to predict the precipitation and temperature change in the future period (2010-2099) in the Raohe River Basin; And coupled with the Xin'anjiang model to get the water resources of Raohe River Basin in the future period. The results show that the future water resources of the Raohe River Basin will decrease continuously, and the A2 scenario will have a larger decline than the B2 scenario, and the largest decline of Changjiang river in the period of 2080s（2070-2099） will reach 31.01%.