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王国庆, 金君良, 林 锦, 王建云, 刘艳丽.山西省中西河流域降水径流演变特征及响应关系水资源与水工程学报[J].,2017,28(3):1-4
山西省中西河流域降水径流演变特征及响应关系
Historical variation and response relationship of precipitation and runoff for the Zhongxi River catchment in Shanxi Province
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.03.01
中文关键词:  降水; 径流; 演变趋势; 阶段性; 响应关系  中西河流域
英文关键词:precipitation  runoff  historical variation trend  evolution phase  responses relationship  Zhongxi River basin
基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601501,2016YFA0601601)、国家自然科学基金项目(41330854、41371063、41401024、41401026)
作者单位
王国庆1,2, 金君良1,2, 林 锦1,2, 王建云3, 刘艳丽1,2 1.南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 江苏 南京 2100292.水利部应对气候变化研究中心 江苏 南京 210029 3. 吕梁市水文水资源勘测分局 山西 离石 033000 
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中文摘要:
      正确理解变化环境下气候水文演变趋势对流域水资源评价具有重要意义。以山西省中部中西河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall方法和有序聚类方法,诊断了1958-2015年降水径流演变规律及径流变化阶段性特征,分析了不同阶段降水径流响应关系。结果表明:近60年来,年降水量和径流量总体呈现减少趋势,平均线性减少率为-1.05mm/a和-1.62mm/a;以1970和1979年为临界点,径流系列呈现3个阶段的变化特征;不同阶段内降水与径流具有较好的相关性,但由于非降水因素的影响,不同阶段降水径流响应关系存在差异;未来应加强进行径流变化归因定量分析研究。
英文摘要:
      It is of great importance for regional water resources assessment to correctly understand the trend of climate hydrological evolution in changing environment. Taking the Zhongxi River catchment in Shanxi Province as a case, historical variations and phases features of precipitation and runoff from 1958-2015 were investigated using Mann-Kendall method and cluster analysis method, and the precipitation-runoff relationships at different stages were analyzed. The results show that both the annual precipitation and runoff declined during 1958-2015 with linear decreasing rates of -1.05 mm/a and -1.62 mm/a, respectively. The years of 1970 and 1979 were detected as significant separating points of runoff series which showed three stages of changing characteristics. Runoff was highly correlated to precipitation in different phases; however, the relationships between runoff and precipitation are different in different phases, which is possibly due to the effect of human activities. It is essential to quantitatively identify contributions of changes in climate and human activities to runoff change in further studies.
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