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马雨露, 赖成光, 习树峰, 陈晓宏, 邓家泉.南方高度城市化地区极端降雨特征分析及阈值确定——以深圳市为例水资源与水工程学报[J].,2017,28(2):76-81
南方高度城市化地区极端降雨特征分析及阈值确定——以深圳市为例
Analysis and determination of extreme precipitation threshold in highly urbanized areas of Southern China:A case from Shenzhen
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.02.13
中文关键词:  极端降雨事件  雨型识别  降雨集中度  阈值
英文关键词:extreme rainfall events  rainfall pattern identification  rainfall concentration degree  threshold
基金项目:广东省水利科技创新项目(2016-01)
作者单位
马雨露1, 赖成光2, 习树峰3, 陈晓宏4, 邓家泉5 (1.广州丰泽源水利科技有限公司 广东 广州 510663 2.华南理工大学 土木与交通学院广东 广州 5106413.深圳城市公共安全技术研究院有限公司 广东 深圳 518046 4.中山大学 地理科学与规划学院水资源与环境研究中心广东 广州 510611 5.珠江水利科学研究院 广东 广州 510610) 
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中文摘要:
      研究南方高度城市化地区极端气候变化规律,定义极端降雨事件的阈值并对地域风险进行评估,对于完善区域“三防”指挥系统的预报预警方案,应对气候变化和快速城市化过程中的极端暴雨内涝灾害风险,具有重要的现实意义。以深圳市为例,在收集统计2000-2015年暴雨灾害事件和相应的多个站点降雨数据基础上,采用模糊识别、PCI等方法分析了该区域的降雨雨型、集中度特征,并采用百分位法对深圳市极端降雨阈值进行了分析和计算。结果表明:造成深圳市内涝的大部分降雨主要是单峰型;均匀大量降雨是内涝主要产生原因;大鹏新区的降雨阈值最高,降雨阈值空间分布图从东往西呈逐渐减少趋势;深圳市极端降雨阈值为降雨频率P=1%的降雨值。
英文摘要:
      It is very important to study the extreme weather variations, to define the threshold of extreme rainfall event and to evaluate the risk of internal water-logging for highly urbanizing areas in Southern China for improving the forecasting and early warning schemes in the command system, and dealing with the extreme rainstorms and water-logging disasters in the courses of climate change and rapid urbanization. Taking Shenzhen as an example, based on data collection of the rainstorm events in Shenzhen from 2000 to 2015 and the corresponding rainfall data from several sites, the fuzzy identification method and PCI were used to analyze the rainfall pattern and rainfall concentration in the region. Also, the Shenzhen extreme rainfall threshold has been analyzed and calculated using the percentile method. The results showed that the single-peak type rainfalls were main rainfall type which caused water-loggings of Shenzhen; the main cause of waterlogging was uniform heavy rainfall; the highest rainfall threshold was located in the Dapeng New Area and the spatial distribution of rainfall thresholds decreased from the east to the west; the extreme rainfall threshold of Shenzhen was the rainfall with frequency of 1%.
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