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王怀志, 高玉琴, 袁 玉, 郭玉雪.基于SWAT模型的秦淮河流域气候变化水文响应研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2017,28(1):81-87
基于SWAT模型的秦淮河流域气候变化水文响应研究
Hydrological responses to climate change in Qinhuai river basin based on SWAT model
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.01.14
中文关键词:  气候变化  降雨  SWAT模型  径流模拟  水文响应  秦淮河流域
英文关键词:climate change  rainfall  SWAT model  runoff simulation  hydrological response  Qinhuai river basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51309076); 中央高校业务费科技前瞻性研究专项(2014B05814)
作者单位
王怀志, 高玉琴, 袁 玉, 郭玉雪 (河海大学 水利水电学院 江苏 南京 210000) 
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中文摘要:
      为了解气候变化对水文水资源的影响机理,以秦淮河流域为研究区构建SWAT模型,使用SWAT-CUP对模型进行参数敏感性分析、率定及验证,并采用任意假设法设计未来气候情景,分析温度及降雨变化对流域径流及实际蒸散发量的影响。结果表明:模型在月径流模拟中具有较高的精度,适用于秦淮河流域气候变化下的水文响应研究;气温降低或降雨量上升都会引起流域径流量增加,反之则减少;实际蒸散发量与降雨量正相关,而实际蒸散发量对气温变化的响应不明显;平水年径流量对降雨量变化的响应较强,枯水年径流量对温度变化的响应较强;枯水年实际蒸散发量对降雨量变化的响应较强。
英文摘要:
      In order to understand the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources, the established SWAT model in the Qinhuai River basin was used, the SWAT-CUP was used for the sensitivity analysis, calibration and validations of model parameters; runoff and actual evapotranspiration change in response to rainfall and temperature change were analyzed with assuming method to design future climate scenarios. The results indicated that: the SWAT model had high precision in monthly runoff simulation, and it can be used for researching hydrological response of the Qinhuai River basin under climate change; the declined temperature or increased precipitation would lead to increased runoff in the basin, on the contrary the runoff decreased; the actual evapotranspiration and precipitation were positively correlated, while the response of actual evapotranspiration to the change of temperature was not obvious; the runoff response to rainfall change was more stronger in the normal year, the runoff response to temperature change was more stronger in the dry year; and the actual evapotranspiration response to the rainfall change was more stronger in the dry year.
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