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宋文涛, 何 斌, 梁国华, 王国利.防洪保护区洪水灾害风险评价模型的研究与应用水资源与水工程学报[J].,2016,27(5):46-52
防洪保护区洪水灾害风险评价模型的研究与应用
Research and application of risk assessment model of flood disaster in protected area of flood control
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2016.05.09
中文关键词:  防洪保护区  洪水灾害  风险评价  可变模糊综合评价
英文关键词:protected area of flood control  flood disaster  risk assessment  variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(DUT16ZD204)
作者单位
宋文涛, 何 斌, 梁国华, 王国利 (大连理工大学 水利工程学院 辽宁 大连 116024) 
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中文摘要:
      洪水灾害风险评价是科学制订减灾决策的依据。本文在现有洪水风险评价模型的基础上,针对防洪保护区洪水灾害的特点,选取最大淹没水深、洪水最大流速、淹没历时、GDP和人口作为评价指标,利用可变模糊综合评价方法,构建适用于防洪保护区的区域洪水灾害风险评价模型,并以河北省L河下游防洪保护区不同情景的洪水灾害风险评价为例,探讨模型的构建与应用,并分析结果的合理性。该模型物理意义清晰、计算简便、评价结果可信度较高,可为洪水灾害管理提供依据。
英文摘要:
      The risk assessment of flood disaster is the basis for the scientific decision of disaster reduction. Based on the risk assessment model of flood,the paper aimed at the characteristics of flood disaster in protected area to choose the largest submerged depth,the maximum velocity of flood,flooded duration,GDP and population as evaluation index.Than it used the variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build the risk assessment model of regional flood disaster which is suitable to the protection area.It took the risk assessment in different scenarios of flood disaster at downstream of protected area of Hebei L River for example,and investigated to build and apply the model.The result shows that the physical significance of the improved model is clear,calculation is simple and with high reliability.The result can provide basis for the management of flood disaster.
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