The paper selected a distributed hydrological MIKE SHE model which has physical base to simulate the hydrological process of Hotan river basin in the typical arid region of northwest of China. It used TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission）rainfall data so as to relize the input of distributed rainfall.The ensemble mean method were used to simulate the change of surface runoff under the four climate change scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 in the future. Results indicate that the distributed hydrological model of MIKE SHE can be used to simulate the hydrological process in the Hotan river basin which has scare observation sites and harsh natural environments. The results of calibration and validation are in acceptable range. The simulation results show that the changes of precipitation, temperature and surface runoff are in good consistency under different climate change scenarios.The precipitation increases in spring, autumn and winter season, while decreases in summer.The temperature rise in four seasons and that increases the largest in summer season.The total surface runoff increases, while that in July and August decreases.The melting snow period further advances and the melting snow volume in Spring increases significantly.