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陈学凯, 徐建新, 胡娟萍, 张泽中, 黄 鑫.1961-2012年贵州省极端降水时空变化特征水资源与水工程学报[J].,2015,26(4):50-56
1961-2012年贵州省极端降水时空变化特征
Feature of spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province from 1961 to 2012
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.04.010
中文关键词:  极端降水指数  时空变化  突变  周期性  贵州省
英文关键词:extreme precipitation index  spatio-temporal variation  abrupt change  periods  Guizhou Province
基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301039); 贵州省水利厅科技专项经费项目(KT201313); 河南省科技攻关计划项目(142102110058); 华北水利水电大学创新计划项目(HSCX2004059)
作者单位
陈学凯, 徐建新, 胡娟萍, 张泽中, 黄 鑫 (华北水利水电大学 河南 郑州 450045) 
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中文摘要:
      利用贵州省1961-2012年日值降水资料,选取并计算了6个极端降水指数,结合ArcGIS空间分析工具与Mann-kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验、小波理论以及R/S分析等方法,就贵州省极端降水的时空变化规律进行了分析。结果表明:①贵州省近52年以来,连续湿日(CWD)呈显著下降趋势,年最大1日降水量(RX1day)和降水强度(SDII)增多但不显著,年最大5日降水量(RX5day)、强降水量(R95)和年极强降水日数(R20mm)表现为不显著的下降趋势;②RX1day、RX5day、SDII和R20mm分别在1973、1972、1981和1992年发生明显的突变现象;③极端降水普遍存在6~7a的主周期和10~12a的次周期;④极端降水的高值区位于黔西南和黔东南地区,而低值区集中在黔西北地区;⑤各极端降水指数与年总降水量之间存在显著的正相关性;⑥极端降水在未来变化趋势中具有长期记忆性。极端降水的变化对贵州当地农业生产和水资源利用造成负面影响,增加了自然灾害发生的风险。
英文摘要:
      By use of precipitation data in Guizhou province from 1961 to 2012,the paper chose six indexes of extreme precipitation,and combined ArcGIS spatial analysis tool, Mann-Kendall test, sliding T-test, Morlet wavelet cycle analysis, rescaled range analysis to analyze the law of spatial variation of extreme climate events. Result showed that ①The continuous wet days (CWD) exhibit significant decreasing trend during 52 years,the maximum 1-day precipitation and density of precipitation(SDII) increase but is not notable,the maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), strong precipitation (R95) and annual very heavy precipitation days (R20mm) present the unnotable decrease trend, but the variation trend of them was not significant. In contrast, there was not an obvious increasing trend in maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and simple daily intensity index (SDII).②Abrupt change points of RX1day, RX5day, SDII and R20mm were at 1973, 1972, 1981 and 1992, respectively;③Almost all extreme precipitation indexes exist the major cycle of 6 to 7 and minor cycle of 10 to 12;④The high value zone of extreme precipitation is southwest and southeast areas in Guizhou province, while the low value zone is northeast areas in Guizhou province. ⑤There are significant positive correlation between precipitation indexes and total precipitation;⑥The extreme precipitation indexes will keep long-term memory in the future. The change of extreme precipitation has negative impacts on the agricultural production and water resources development in the Guizhou province and increases the risk of natural disasters.
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