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俞奇骏, 张洪波, 陈克宇,顾 磊.佳芦河流域水沙演变及其驱动因素分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2015,26(3):151-156
佳芦河流域水沙演变及其驱动因素分析
Analysis of evolution and driving force factor of runoff and sediment in Jialu River watershed
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.03.031
中文关键词:  河川径流  输沙量  水文分析法  人类活动影响  佳芦河流域
英文关键词:river runoff  sediment load  method of hydrology analysis  impact of human activities  Jialu River watershed
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51009009、51379014)
作者单位
俞奇骏a, 张洪波a,b, 陈克宇a,顾 磊a (长安大学 a.环境科学与工程学院
b.旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710054) 
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中文摘要:
      在全球气候变暖的大背景下,人类活动对河川径流的影响持续加强,导致我国西北干旱半干旱区普遍发生径流减少甚至断流以及水沙关系变异等问题,为此,探究该地区流域水沙变化特征、趋势及内在原因显得尤为重要。采用滑动平均法和有序聚类分析法对佳芦河流域1957-2010年水沙变化特征进行分析,并用水文分析法定量分离出降水及人类活动对该流域水沙变化的影响。结果表明:佳芦河流域年径流及年输沙量均呈现减少趋势,且两者在1972年均发生突变,突变点后年平均径流仅为突变点前的21.56%,年输沙量减少更为显著,仅为6.45%。进一步分析发现,在1972年后,人类活动对年径流和年输沙量的减少的影响分别占81%和67.23%,并且各个时期影响率不同,但整体上呈逐步加强趋势。人类活动是导致佳芦河流域径流及输沙量减少的主导因素,在当前气候条件稳定的情况下这种缩减趋势仍将继续。
英文摘要:
      In the context of global warming, the impact of human activities on river runoff continues to strengthen,which results in happening the problems of runoff reduction,dried up and variation of runoff and sediment in northwest arid and semi-arid regions.Therefore,it's very important to explore the variation characteristics,trend and internal cause of runoff and sediment load in Jialu River. The paper used the methods of moving average and sequential cluster to analyzed the variation characteristics of runoff and sediment load from 1957 to 2010,and applied hydrologic analysis to quantitatively analyze the effect of precipitation and human activities on runoff and sediment load. The result showed that both runoff and sediment load presented the decrease trend, and took place the change point in 1972.The average runoff after 1972 accounts for only that of 21.56% before 1972, the annual sediment load obviously reduces and accounts for 6.45% of that before.The impact of Human activities on the reduction of runoff accounts for 81% and that of sediment load accounts for 67.23%.The impact is different in different periods but possesses the gradual strengthening trend contribution on the whole. Human activities are the dominant factors leading to reduction of runoff and sediment load and the decreasing trend will continue in the current climate conditions in Jialu River watershed.
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