以青藏高原大通河流域为研究区域，将流域内及周边5个气象站1960-2012年的年降水、年均气温及年潜在蒸散发作为研究对象，利用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall法、滑动平均和小波分析法对各气候要素的演变特性进行了分析，以期为大通河流域水电站梯级调度运行、减轻旱涝灾害及其影响提供科学依据。结果表明：①53a以来，大通河流域年降水以 0.60 mm /a 线性趋势不显著增加，年均气温以0.03℃/a的线性趋势显著增加，而多年潜在蒸散发却以0.94 mm /a 线性趋势不显著减小；②流域年降水受祁连山及季风的影响，在东西方向自西南向东北逐渐增加，在流域的中游达到最大；受海拔的影响，年均温度的空间分布东高西低，南低北高，最高温度出现在流域中下游；而流域年潜在蒸散自西南向东北呈现带状相间的分布规律；③该流域年降水、年均气温均未出现突变，流域年潜在蒸散发在1970及2008年出现突变；④周期分析显示，流域年降水序列周期为17、28 a左右，年均气温周期为8、15 a左右，年潜在蒸散发序列周期为18、30a左右。
英文摘要:
Taking Datong river basin of Tibet plateau as research area,and annual precipitation, potential evaporation and average temperature in 5 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2012 as research objects,The paper analyzed the evolution characteristics of climate factor by use of climatic trend rate, Mann-Kendall, moving average and wavelet analysis method so as to provide scientic reference for the regulation and operation of cascade hydropower station and the reduction of dry and flood disaster.The results showed that： ① during 1960-2012, the annual precipitation rised by 0.60mm per year with unremarkable trend.The annual average temperature increased significantly at the rate of 0.03℃ per year.The annual potential evapotranspiration decreased slightly by 0.94mm per year; ② the distribution of annual precipitation increased from southwest to northeast and reached the maximum in the middle region owing to Mountain Qilian and monsoon.The spatial distribution of annual average temperature is high in east and north and low in west and south because the effect of altitude.The highest tempreture appears in middle and downstream.The annual potential evaporation shows a southwest-northeast zonal distribution; ③ there was no abrupt change in precipitation as well as annual average temperature, but that of annual potential evaporation occurred in 1970 and 2008; ④ the periods of precipitation is around 17,28 years; the cycle of average annual temperature is 8 years, 15 years and that of potential evaporation was 18 and 30 years.